S&P 500 Daily Perspective for Fri 17 Oct 2025
GDR Model Performance
Please see the Performance page for more detailed performance numbers, how they’re calculated, and a chart.
For the fine print (a.k.a. the lawyer-approved stuff), don’t miss the Disclaimers section—it’s where all the “officially important” bits live!
GDR Model Outlook
Overall Outlook (as of 16 Oct 2025): NEUTRAL. The GDR Model has been pointing to an indecisive market. Moreover the market failed to sustain the recent strength the model had picked up on.
Fundamentals Outlook (as of 16 Oct 2025): Fair Value/Rich. The model has adjusted valuations slightly upward following the release of new data. Going forward GDR Model positioning should tactically tilt a little more towards the long side, all else equal. Note that this is just a barometer to help guide longer-term decision-making rather than short-term market timing.
IMPORTANT NOTE: it’s unknown what the impact of tariffs on valuations (or what the ultimate level of the tariffs themselves) will actually be on valuations. Rather than make tariff-related assumptions to adjust the model accordingly, the Fundamentals Outlook will remain fully data-driven as it’s always been. All other portions of the model are entirely unaffected.
Long-Term Outlook (as of 10 Oct 2025): Neutral. Any hope for renewed strength all but vanished at the end of last week. Not only was Friday’s sell-off nasty, the weakness behind was fully confirmed by the model’s read of the market.
Short-Term Outlook (as of 16 Oct 2025): Bullish. The market closed the day very weak. I guess the recent strength the model detected didn’t stick…
Breadth Outlook (as of 16 Oct 2025): Neutral. Breadth has dropped back to neutral. This recent back-and-forth highlights the fact that the market isn’t on solid footing at this point.
Volatility Outlook (as of 16 Oct 2025): Shaky. The volatility outlook is now negative. While a single day in shaky (or worse) is unlikely to break the market, several days in negative territory has historically almost inevitably led to more serious sell-offs.
GDR Model Position
The GDR Model has been essentially flat since around mid September after it picked up on fresh weakness. For as long as the market remains indecisive, the model is likely to remain mostly flat.
