S&P 500 Daily Perspective for Fri 17 Oct 2025

GDR Model Performance

Please see the Performance page for more detailed performance numbers, how they’re calculated, and a chart.

For the fine print (a.k.a. the lawyer-approved stuff), don’t miss the Disclaimers section—it’s where all the “officially important” bits live!

GDR Model Outlook

Overall Outlook (as of 16 Oct 2025): NEUTRAL. The GDR Model has been pointing to an indecisive market. Moreover the market failed to sustain the recent strength the model had picked up on.

Fundamentals Outlook (as of 16 Oct 2025): Fair Value/Rich. The model has adjusted valuations slightly upward following the release of new data. Going forward GDR Model positioning should tactically tilt a little more towards the long side, all else equal. Note that this is just a barometer to help guide longer-term decision-making rather than short-term market timing.

IMPORTANT NOTE: it’s unknown what the impact of tariffs on valuations (or what the ultimate level of the tariffs themselves) will actually be on valuations. Rather than make tariff-related assumptions to adjust the model accordingly, the Fundamentals Outlook will remain fully data-driven as it’s always been. All other portions of the model are entirely unaffected.

Long-Term Outlook (as of 10 Oct 2025): Neutral. Any hope for renewed strength all but vanished at the end of last week. Not only was Friday’s sell-off nasty, the weakness behind was fully confirmed by the model’s read of the market.