S&P 500 Daily Perspective for Wed 19 Nov 2025

GDR Model Performance

Please see the Performance page for more detailed performance numbers, how they’re calculated, and a chart.

For the fine print (a.k.a. the lawyer-approved stuff), don’t miss the Disclaimers section—it’s where all the “officially important” bits live!

GDR Model Outlook

Overall Outlook (as of 18 Nov 2025): MOSTLY BEARISH. The GDR Model is once again pointing to fresh weakness in the market. Time will tell if this time we’ll see a more significant sell-off before renewed strength kicks in…

Fundamentals Outlook (as of 18 Nov 2025): Fair Value/Rich. The model has adjusted valuations slightly upward following the release of new data. Going forward GDR Model positioning should tactically tilt a little more towards the long side, all else equal. Note that this is just a barometer to help guide longer-term decision-making rather than short-term market timing.

IMPORTANT NOTE: it’s unknown what the impact of tariffs on valuations (or what the ultimate level of the tariffs themselves) will actually be on valuations. Rather than make tariff-related assumptions to adjust the model accordingly, the Fundamentals Outlook will remain fully data-driven as it’s always been. All other portions of the model are entirely unaffected.

Long-Term Outlook (as of 14 Nov 2025): Bullish. Despite the significant weakness to end last week, there is no change to the long-term outlook – it remains bullish.

Short-Term Outlook (as of 18 Nov 2025): Bearish. The market remains weak over the short-term timeframe.

Breadth Outlook (as of 18 Nov 2025): Bearish. Breadth is bearish and given the weakness permeating the short-term components of the model, this may be significant.

Volatility Outlook (as of 18 Nov 2025): Volatile. The volatility outlook has dropped further to volatile, which is the most negative reading. The odds of a significant sell-off have been steadily increasing over the last several days.

GDR Model Position

Following consecutive days of notable weakness in the market, the GDR Model has recently increased its short position.