S&P 500 Daily Perspective for Fri 19 Sep 2025

GDR Model Performance

Please see the Performance page for more detailed performance numbers, how they’re calculated, and a chart.

For the fine print (a.k.a. the lawyer-approved stuff), don’t miss the Disclaimers section—it’s where all the “officially important” bits live!

GDR Model Outlook

Overall Outlook (as of 18 Sep 2025): BULLISH. The GDR Model has been picking up on notable strength in the market for a while now and it’s fully bullish. If the market can maintain the recent strength then the model is likely to reopen a long position.

Fundamentals Outlook (as of 28 Aug 2025): Fair Value/Rich. The model has adjusted valuations slightly upward following the release of new data. Going forward GDR Model positioning should tactically tilt a little more towards the long side, all else equal. Note that this is just a barometer to help guide longer-term decision-making rather than short-term market timing.

IMPORTANT NOTE: it’s unknown what the impact of tariffs on valuations (or what the ultimate level of the tariffs themselves) will actually be on valuations. Rather than make tariff-related assumptions to adjust the model accordingly, the Fundamentals Outlook will remain fully data-driven as it’s always been. All other portions of the model are entirely unaffected.

Long-Term Outlook (as of 12 Sep 2025): Bullish. The long-term outlook posted a weak close to the week. It’s not material weakness, however, the speed with which this portion of the model went from being unquestionably strong back to weakness is notable.

Short-Term Outlook (as of 18 Sep 2025): Bullish. The market was strong throughout the day again. The most important question at this point is whether it can sustain this strength for long enough to continue the uptrend.

Breadth Outlook (as of 18 Sep 2025): Bullish. The bullish alignment across all of the model’s components makes this a meaningful data point.

Volatility Outlook (as of 18 Sep 2025): Calm. The volatility outlook is in calm waters, which, while sustained, will likely help protect against serious sell-offs and lift prices higher.

GDR Model Position

Even though the market has been showing consistent strength for a while, the GDR Model has opted to close its long position following a sudden and material drop in strength last week. The model is effectively flat.