S&P 500 Daily Perspective for Fri 31 Oct 2025
GDR Model Performance
Please see the Performance page for more detailed performance numbers, how they’re calculated, and a chart.
For the fine print (a.k.a. the lawyer-approved stuff), don’t miss the Disclaimers section—it’s where all the “officially important” bits live!
GDR Model Outlook
Overall Outlook (as of 30 Oct 2025): NEUTRAL. The GDR Model noticed the market attempt to regain and maintain upward strength last week, but now the market seems to be shifting back to weakness. Whatever happens during the rest of this week will likely be critical going forward…
Fundamentals Outlook (as of 20 Oct 2025): Rich. The model has adjusted valuations slightly upward following the release of new data. Going forward GDR Model positioning should tactically tilt a little more towards the long side, all else equal. Note that this is just a barometer to help guide longer-term decision-making rather than short-term market timing.
IMPORTANT NOTE: it’s unknown what the impact of tariffs on valuations (or what the ultimate level of the tariffs themselves) will actually be on valuations. Rather than make tariff-related assumptions to adjust the model accordingly, the Fundamentals Outlook will remain fully data-driven as it’s always been. All other portions of the model are entirely unaffected.
Long-Term Outlook (as of 24 Oct 2025): Neutral. The long-term outlook improved notably this week, though not enough for an upgrade just yet. What happens next week will be key…
Short-Term Outlook (as of 30 Oct 2025): Neutral. The short-term outlook weakened further today and closed the day weak again.
Breadth Outlook (as of 30 Oct 2025): Bearish. Breadth remains bearish and supports the idea of a weak market over the last couple of days.
Volatility Outlook (as of 30 Oct 2025): Calm. The volatility outlook remains calm, which underpins the nascent bullish undertone.
GDR Model Position
The GDR Model is back to a slightly short position. This is just a tactical adjustment as the model’s outlook on the market has been steadily heading towards bullish.
