S&P 500 Daily Perspective for Tue 28 Jan 2025

GDR Model Performance

Please see the Performance page for more detailed performance numbers, how they’re calculated, and a chart.

For the fine print (a.k.a. the lawyer-approved stuff), don’t miss the Disclaimers section—it’s where all the “officially important” bits live!

GDR Model Outlook

The GDR Model is bullish. The recent indecision in the markets seems to be pretty much gone.

Fundamentals Outlook (as of 17 Jun 2024): for the first time in a while the model is showing stocks as being richly valued (i.e. overpriced). Note that this is just a barometer to help guide longer-term decision-making rather than short-term market timing.

Long-Term Outlook (as of 24 Jan 2025): the long-term outlook is upgraded to bullish. This is the final confirmation that the recent market uncertainty seems to be gone, at least for now…

Short-Term Outlook (as of 27 Jan 2025): despite the large decline in price today, the short-term outlook never reached any levels that suggest bearishness. This surprised even me, but process is process and there is still notable strength in the market

Breadth Outlook (as of 27 Jan 2025): breadth dropped to neutral but only by a small margin. Nothing to worry about at this point.

Volatility Outlook (as of 27 Jan 2025): the volatility outlook did deteriorate but not nearly enough to cause a downgrade to shaky. Currently the odds that the market will pick itself back up remain high (though they can obviously change).

GDR Model Position

The GDR Model is 3x long as the market continues to show strength.