S&P 500 Daily Perspective for Wed 29 Oct 2025

GDR Model Performance

Please see the Performance page for more detailed performance numbers, how they’re calculated, and a chart.

For the fine print (a.k.a. the lawyer-approved stuff), don’t miss the Disclaimers section—it’s where all the “officially important” bits live!

GDR Model Outlook

Overall Outlook (as of 28 Oct 2025): BULLISH TO NEUTRAL. The GDR Model is starting to notice the market attempt to regain and maintain upward strength. If the strength we saw last week is sustained, it will probably not be long until the model turns fully bullish.

Fundamentals Outlook (as of 20 Oct 2025): Rich. The model has adjusted valuations slightly upward following the release of new data. Going forward GDR Model positioning should tactically tilt a little more towards the long side, all else equal. Note that this is just a barometer to help guide longer-term decision-making rather than short-term market timing.

IMPORTANT NOTE: it’s unknown what the impact of tariffs on valuations (or what the ultimate level of the tariffs themselves) will actually be on valuations. Rather than make tariff-related assumptions to adjust the model accordingly, the Fundamentals Outlook will remain fully data-driven as it’s always been. All other portions of the model are entirely unaffected.

Long-Term Outlook (as of 24 Oct 2025): Neutral. The long-term outlook improved notably this week, though not enough for an upgrade just yet. What happens next week will be key…

Short-Term Outlook (as of 28 Oct 2025): Bullish. The market closed strong today, but it showed more weakness intraday than I’d have expected for a day when the S&P 500 ended higher. There’s a chance this rally may have legs, but the slew of data releases from tomorrow through the end of this week can easily knock markets off course (or strengthen them further).

Breadth Outlook (as of 28 Oct 2025): Neutral. Breadth dropped back down to neutral, however at this point it’s safe to mostly disregard this data point. A positive reaction to tomorrow’s Fed announcement probably would bring this metric back to bullish.

Volatility Outlook (as of 28 Oct 2025): Calm. The volatility outlook remains calm, which underpins the nascent bullish undertone.

GDR Model Position

The GDR Model is back to a slightly short position. This is just a tactical adjustment as the model’s outlook on the market has been steadily heading towards bullish.