S&P 500 Daily Perspective for Wed 12 Nov 2025

GDR Model Performance

Please see the Performance page for more detailed performance numbers, how they’re calculated, and a chart.

For the fine print (a.k.a. the lawyer-approved stuff), don’t miss the Disclaimers section—it’s where all the “officially important” bits live!

GDR Model Outlook

Overall Outlook (as of 11 Nov 2025): BULLISH TO NEUTRAL. Last week’s improvement in the long-term outlook has been looking more and more like a tell foreshadowing an upcoming rally. Since then, all of the model’s other components have methodically been inching towards bullish…

Fundamentals Outlook (as of 20 Oct 2025): Rich. The model has adjusted valuations slightly upward following the release of new data. Going forward GDR Model positioning should tactically tilt a little more towards the long side, all else equal. Note that this is just a barometer to help guide longer-term decision-making rather than short-term market timing.

IMPORTANT NOTE: it’s unknown what the impact of tariffs on valuations (or what the ultimate level of the tariffs themselves) will actually be on valuations. Rather than make tariff-related assumptions to adjust the model accordingly, the Fundamentals Outlook will remain fully data-driven as it’s always been. All other portions of the model are entirely unaffected.

Long-Term Outlook (as of 7 Nov 2025): Bullish. The long-term outlook improved again this week and has now improved to bullish. It is notable that the long-term outlook seems to be at odds with short-term and breadth, and this may well suggest buy and hold interest popping up in the market.

Short-Term Outlook (as of 11 Nov 2025): Neutral. The short-term outlook showed another strong close today and has improved to bullish. This is starting to look more like the steady strength that tends to underpin bullish markets…

Breadth Outlook (as of 11 Nov 2025): Neutral. Breadth has recently improved to neutral, which is supportive of the recent strength coming up in the market.

Volatility Outlook (as of 11 Nov 2025): Stable. The volatility outlook at stable should still do reasonably well at holding the market together.

GDR Model Position

Given the weakness in the market over the short-term, the GDR Model remains slightly short the market. However, if the recent strength is sustained, the model is likely to enter a significant long position.