S&P 500 Daily Perspective for Fri 28 Mar 2025

GDR Model Performance

Please see the Performance page for more detailed performance numbers, how they’re calculated, and a chart.

For the fine print (a.k.a. the lawyer-approved stuff), don’t miss the Disclaimers section—it’s where all the “officially important” bits live!

GDR Model Outlook

The GDR Model is neutral. The serious sell-off the model had been pointing towards for weeks is now well underway. However, the model currently points to indecision in the market so the chance of choppy price movements is higher than usual.

Fundamentals Outlook (as of 27 Mar 2025): the model has adjusted valuations upward following the release of new data. Going forward GDR Model positioning should tilt more towards the long side, all else equal. Note that this is just a barometer to help guide longer-term decision-making rather than short-term market timing.

Long-Term Outlook (as of 21 Mar 2025): the long-term outlook remains bearish, and is back to a weak close.There has been persistent weakness over the long-term timeframe and the market is unlikely to fully recover until this weakness gives way to renewed strength.

Short-Term Outlook (as of 27 Mar 2025): the short-term outlook is downgraded to neutral following another weak close to the trading day.

Breadth Outlook (as of 27 Mar 2025): breadth remains bearish. While the impact on the overall read of the model remains minimal, it’s notable to potentially see the model start to align to the downside once again.

Volatility Outlook (as of 27 Mar 2025): the volatility outlook has dropped to shaky. The market seems a bit undecided lately, so this part of the model keeps going back and forth between stable and shaky. A stable outlook (or better) drastically limits the probability of a sell-off, while a shaky outlook (or worse) materially increases it.

GDR Model Position

As a result of the increase in estimated valuations, the GDR Model has increased its long position. This still falls in the camp of tactical positioning due to market indecision rather than a full-blown change in sentiment - the model certainly doesn’t see the market as strong enough to warrant a more substantial long position.