S&P 500 Daily Perspective for Tue 30 Sep 2025

GDR Model Performance

Please see the Performance page for more detailed performance numbers, how they’re calculated, and a chart.

For the fine print (a.k.a. the lawyer-approved stuff), don’t miss the Disclaimers section—it’s where all the “officially important” bits live!

GDR Model Outlook

Overall Outlook (as of 29 Sep 2025): NEUTRAL. The weakness the GDR Model started to pick up on recently has continued for some time now. At this point, it’s looking like the market is going through a period of indecision.

Fundamentals Outlook (as of 23 Sep 2025): Fair Value/Rich. The model has adjusted valuations slightly upward following the release of new data. Going forward GDR Model positioning should tactically tilt a little more towards the long side, all else equal. Note that this is just a barometer to help guide longer-term decision-making rather than short-term market timing.

IMPORTANT NOTE: it’s unknown what the impact of tariffs on valuations (or what the ultimate level of the tariffs themselves) will actually be on valuations. Rather than make tariff-related assumptions to adjust the model accordingly, the Fundamentals Outlook will remain fully data-driven as it’s always been. All other portions of the model are entirely unaffected.

Long-Term Outlook (as of 26 Sep 2025): Neutral. Last week closed on a strong note. Overall though the market has been unable to hold on to any strength for long enough lately. Every time there has been some strength, it seems to fade away relatively quickly.

Short-Term Outlook (as of 29 Sep 2025): Bearish. The market continued its tendency of failing to hold on to strength, and this has now caused a downgrade in the short-term outlook.

Breadth Outlook (as of 29 Sep 2025): Bullish. Breadth is back up to bullish, but given that this is at odds with the rest of the model, it is not a very important data point.

Volatility Outlook (as of 29 Sep 2025): Stable. The volatility outlook is in calm/stable waters, which, while sustained, will likely help protect against serious sell-offs and lift prices higher.

GDR Model Position

The GDR Model went flat around mid-month after it picked up on fresh weakness. For now, the model is pointing towards indecision in the market, and while that is the case it’s more likely to remain flat.