S&P 500 Daily Perspective for Tue 16 Dec 2025
GDR Model Performance
Please see the Performance page for more detailed performance numbers, how they’re calculated, and a chart.
For the fine print (a.k.a. the lawyer-approved stuff), don’t miss the Disclaimers section—it’s where all the “officially important” bits live!
GDR Model Outlook
Overall Outlook (as of 15 Dec 2025): BULLISH. The model is bullish, which means that, according to its framework, the odds of continued upside are relatively high. Let’s see if it sticks this time…
Fundamentals Outlook (as of 24 Nov 2025): Rich. The model has adjusted valuations slightly upward following the release of new data. Going forward GDR Model positioning should tactically tilt a little more towards the long side, all else equal. Note that this is just a barometer to help guide longer-term decision-making rather than short-term market timing.
IMPORTANT NOTE: it’s unknown what the impact of tariffs on valuations (or what the ultimate level of the tariffs themselves) will actually be on valuations. Rather than make tariff-related assumptions to adjust the model accordingly, the Fundamentals Outlook will remain fully data-driven as it’s always been. All other portions of the model are entirely unaffected.
Long-Term Outlook (as of 12 Dec 2025): Bullish. The market is strong on the long-term timeframe despite last Friday’s weakness.
Short-Term Outlook (as of 15 Dec 2025): Bullish. Even thought the market weakened on Friday, it remains strong on the short-term timeframe.
Breadth Outlook (as of 15 Dec 2025): Neutral. Breadth has been downgraded, but given the overall model is broadly positive, this isn’t very important for now.
Volatility Outlook (as of 15 Dec 2025): Stable. The volatility outlook has steadily declined over the last several days and has been downgraded to stable. For now this is something to note, but not (yet) critical…
GDR Model Position
Following the notable strength that has now persisted for a couple of weeks, the GDR Model is holding a significant long position.
