S&P 500 Daily Perspective for Thu 16 Jan 2025

GDR Model Performance

Please see the Performance page for more detailed performance numbers, how they’re calculated and a chart.

GDR Model Outlook

The GDR Model is mostly bearish. The recent indecision in the market seems to be dissipating and it looks to be strongly leaning bearish at this point.

Fundamentals Outlook (as of 17 Jun 2024): for the first time in a while the model is showing stocks as being richly valued (i.e. overpriced). Note that this is just a barometer to help guide longer-term decision-making rather than short-term market timing.

Long-Term Outlook (as of 10 Jan 2025): after recovering a bit last week, the market closed weak again this week. The Long-Term Outlook has been downgraded to neutral and If this weakness is sustained, the odds of a significant sell-off will increase significantly.

Short-Term Outlook (as of 15 Jan 2025): the market has now shown strength for two days in a row on the short-term timeframe. The outlook is upgraded to neutral.

Breadth Outlook (as of 15 Jan 2025): breadth has improved further to bullish. This in line with the strength the model detected in the short-term. Do note that the breadth portion of the model is the most prone to noise.

Volatility Outlook (as of 15 Jan 2025): the Volatility Outlook also improve further, but has not yet been upgraded. Volatile or shaky conditions tend to set the stage for big liquidations as well as face-ripping short-covering rallies.

GDR Model Position

The GDR Model is essentially flat. However, it won’t be long before opening a long position should the market continue to show consistent strength as it has over the past couple of days.