S&P 500 Daily Perspective for Tue 12 Aug 2025

GDR Model Performance

Please see the Performance page for more detailed performance numbers, how they’re calculated, and a chart.

For the fine print (a.k.a. the lawyer-approved stuff), don’t miss the Disclaimers section—it’s where all the “officially important” bits live!

GDR Model Outlook

Overall Outlook (as of 11 Aug 2025): NEUTRAL TO BEARISH. Odds still favor a sustained sell-off, but at this point it seems like the market is back to a period of indecision with volatility positioning lifting prices, or at least keeping them relatively stable.

Fundamentals Outlook (as of 26 Jun 2025): Fair Value/Rich. The model has adjusted valuations slightly downward following the release of new data. Going forward GDR Model positioning should tactically tilt a little less towards the long side, all else equal. Note that this is just a barometer to help guide longer-term decision-making rather than short-term market timing.

IMPORTANT NOTE: it’s unknown what the impact of tariffs on valuations (or what the ultimate level of the tariffs themselves) will actually be on valuations. Rather than make tariff-related assumptions to adjust the model accordingly, the Fundamentals Outlook will remain fully data-driven as it’s always been. All other portions of the model are entirely unaffected.

Long-Term Outlook (as of 8 Aug 2025): Bearish. The long-term outlook remains bearish and a meaningful sell-off is well within the realm of possibility. This is in spite of the market’s rally this week.

Short-Term Outlook (as of 11 Aug 2025): Bearish. The market closed weak today and the short-term outlook is back to bearish. The market has been struggling for a while now…

Breadth Outlook (as of 11 Aug 2025): Neutral. Breadth being back to neutral corroborates the idea that the market may be going through another period of indecision before taking direction again.

Volatility Outlook (as of 11 Aug 2025): Calm. The volatility outlook is back in calmer waters, which may get in the way of any serious sell-offs and will likely lift prices higher, if sustained.

GDR Model Position

The weakness in the short-term outlook coupled with more favorable prices was enough to have the GDR Model re-open a short position.