S&P 500 Daily Perspective for Thu 27 April 2023

Market attempting breakdown below Balance Zone as GDR Model outlook deteriorates

Apr 27, 2023

GDR Model Performance

This year has been challenging for the Model’s style due to low confidence in the market.

GDR Model Outlook

The overall Model is Neutral, but it’s steadily headed towards Bearish. The Short-Term Outlook deteriorated to Neutral. Breadth is solidly Bearish and the potential for increased Volatility has also been steadily increasing further.

GDR Model Position

Despite the slight deterioration at the end of last week, the model is still not committing to a position as there is not enough conviction.

S&P 500 Futures Market Profile Analysis

Near-Term Outlook: Challenging Balance Zone Low, tilt Bearish

Alternate Outlook: Rejected break from Balance Zone

Key Levels for Today

Bullish: 4100 (Go-No-Go Level), 4116 (Trapped Long Position), 4136 (Short-Term Balance Low)
Bearish: 4080 (Bottom of Current Balance Zone), 4061 (Weak Low), (4032 Top of Lower Balance Zone)

Market Narrative

The market ended lower yesterday in a rotational trading day. Moreover, value developed mostly lower. The key going into today is whether or not the market is able to trade and accept below 4080, the bottom of the current Balance Zone.

If this happens, then the reasonable near-term target is re-entry to the lower Balance Zone, which starts at 4016. If the market rejects the breakdown, then rotation back to the top of the current Balance Zone at 4188 is the potential near-term target.

Economic Calendar

Today at 8:30am - GDP, Initial Jobless Claims
Today at 10:00am - Pending Home Sales
Earnigs After the Close: AMZN 0.00%↑
Tomorrow: PCE (8:30am), XOM 0.00 (Before Open)