S&P 500 Daily Perspective for Wed 11 Mar 2026

GDR Model Performance

Please see the Performance page for more detailed performance numbers, how they’re calculated, and a chart.

For the fine print (a.k.a. the lawyer-approved stuff), don’t miss the Disclaimers section—it’s where all the “officially important” bits live!

GDR Model Outlook

Overall Outlook (as of 10 Mar 2026): NEUTRAL. Market conditions worsened materially Thursday and Friday, and the model is showing cross-winds yet again. There has been remarkably little to no followthrough in either direction so far this year…

Fundamentals Outlook (as of 24 Dec 2025): Fair Value/Rich. The model has adjusted valuations slightly upward following the release of new data. Going forward GDR Model positioning should tactically tilt a little more towards the long side, all else equal. Note that this is just a barometer to help guide longer-term decision-making rather than short-term market timing.

Long-Term Outlook (as of 6 Mar 2026): Bullish. The market showed weakness at the end of the week. For now there is no downgrade, though this is something to note.

Short-Term Outlook (as of 10 Mar 2026): Bearish. The short-term outlook showed weakness throughout the day yet again. There was an attempt to turn into strength halfway through, but that failed, which may be meaningful down the road.

Breadth Outlook (as of 10 Mar 2026): Neutral. Breadth improved to neutral, which is a natural consequence of yesterday’s strong rally to end the day. At this point there isn’t much value in this reading.

Volatility Outlook (as of 10 Mar 2026): Volatile. Volatility has worsened further and is at its worst reading. The expectation is for wide ranges whether that comes in the form of bigger sell-offs or nasty short-covering rallies.

GDR Model Position

The market has deteriorated materially so the model has closed its long position last week and is essentially flat for now.