S&P 500 Daily Perspective for Wed 22 Oct 2025
GDR Model Performance
Please see the Performance page for more detailed performance numbers, how they’re calculated, and a chart.
For the fine print (a.k.a. the lawyer-approved stuff), don’t miss the Disclaimers section—it’s where all the “officially important” bits live!
GDR Model Outlook
Overall Outlook (as of 21 Oct 2025): NEUTRAL TO BULLISH. The GDR Model has been pointing to an indecisive market, but there are some nascent signs of strength.
Fundamentals Outlook (as of 16 Oct 2025): Fair Value/Rich. The model has adjusted valuations slightly upward following the release of new data. Going forward GDR Model positioning should tactically tilt a little more towards the long side, all else equal. Note that this is just a barometer to help guide longer-term decision-making rather than short-term market timing.
IMPORTANT NOTE: it’s unknown what the impact of tariffs on valuations (or what the ultimate level of the tariffs themselves) will actually be on valuations. Rather than make tariff-related assumptions to adjust the model accordingly, the Fundamentals Outlook will remain fully data-driven as it’s always been. All other portions of the model are entirely unaffected.
Long-Term Outlook (as of 17 Oct 2025): Neutral. Any hope for renewed strength all but vanished at the end of the week of the 6th. Since then, the market has continued to show weakness amidst the frequent back-and-forth in prices.
Short-Term Outlook (as of 21 Oct 2025): Neutral. The market showed strength in the short-term timeframe for the second day in the row, but still no upgrade.
Breadth Outlook (as of 21 Oct 2025): Bullish. Breadth strengthened further, which at this point could foreshadow incoming strength in the market.
Volatility Outlook (as of 21 Oct 2025): Calm. The volatility outlook has been upgraded yet again. This also points to rising odds of incoming strength to the market.
GDR Model Position
The GDR Model has been essentially flat since around mid September after it picked up on fresh weakness. For as long as the market remains indecisive, the model is likely to remain mostly flat.
