S&P 500 Daily Perspective for Tue 27 May 2025

GDR Model Performance

Please see the Performance page for more detailed performance numbers, how they’re calculated, and a chart.

For the fine print (a.k.a. the lawyer-approved stuff), don’t miss the Disclaimers section—it’s where all the “officially important” bits live!

GDR Model Outlook

Overall Outlook (as of 23 May 2025): NEUTRAL. The recent recovery was convincing, but a number of the model’s components have shown quick and meaningful deterioration over the last couple of days.

Fundamentals Outlook (as of 27 Mar 2025): Fair Value. The model has adjusted valuations upward following the release of new data. Going forward GDR Model positioning should tactically tilt more towards the long side, all else equal. Note that this is just a barometer to help guide longer-term decision-making rather than short-term market timing.

IMPORTANT NOTE REGARDING THE FUNDAMENTALS OUTLOOK: given the magnitude of the likely economic impact from the tariffs implemented by the US administration, and that the data that goes into this portion of the model comes with a delay, this part of the model is most likely inaccurate for the foreseeable future. I will keep updating it as usual, but please be aware of this. All other portions of the model are entirely unaffected.

Long-Term Outlook (as of 23 May 2025): Bullish. Despite the shakeup last week, the market remains strong from a long-term perspective.

Short-Term Outlook (as of 23 May 2025): Bearish. The market’s recent strength has waned materially over the past couple of days. This has been a markedly fast deterioration…

Breadth Outlook (as of 23 May 2025): Neutral. That breadth remains firmly neutral despite the deteriorate in the short-term and volatility outlooks gives some additional hope that the current sell-off may be short-lived.

Volatility Outlook (as of 23 May 2025): Shaky. The volatility outlook has been downgraded further. A shaky outlook opens the possibility for a more serious sell-off where the market drops quickly.

GDR Model Position

The GDR Model has opted to take additional profits on its long position and further reduce exposure. At this point the model sees some potential for a break in the recent uptrend. Time will tell…