S&P 500 Daily Perspective for Mon 10 Nov 2025

GDR Model Performance

Please see the Performance page for more detailed performance numbers, how they’re calculated, and a chart.

For the fine print (a.k.a. the lawyer-approved stuff), don’t miss the Disclaimers section—it’s where all the “officially important” bits live!

GDR Model Outlook

Overall Outlook (as of 7 Nov 2025): NEUTRAL. The GDR Model continues pointing to more crosswinds in the market, however the improvement in the long-term outlook is notable and may foreshadow an upcoming rally. Time will tell…

Fundamentals Outlook (as of 20 Oct 2025): Rich. The model has adjusted valuations slightly upward following the release of new data. Going forward GDR Model positioning should tactically tilt a little more towards the long side, all else equal. Note that this is just a barometer to help guide longer-term decision-making rather than short-term market timing.

IMPORTANT NOTE: it’s unknown what the impact of tariffs on valuations (or what the ultimate level of the tariffs themselves) will actually be on valuations. Rather than make tariff-related assumptions to adjust the model accordingly, the Fundamentals Outlook will remain fully data-driven as it’s always been. All other portions of the model are entirely unaffected.

Long-Term Outlook (as of 7 Nov 2025): Bullish. The long-term outlook improved again this week and has now improved to bullish. It is notable that the long-term outlook seems to be at odds with short-term and breadth, and this may well suggest buy and hold interest popping up in the market.

Short-Term Outlook (as of 7 Nov 2025): Bearish. The short-term outlook remains bearish. There has been persistent weakness for a while now.

Breadth Outlook (as of 7 Nov 2025): Bearish. Breadth remains bearish and supports the idea of a weak market over the last few days.

Volatility Outlook (as of 7 Nov 2025): Stable. The volatility outlook at stable should still do reasonably well at holding the market together. However, if this part of the model keeps deteriorating a deeper sell-off becomes more likely.

GDR Model Position

Given the persistent weakness in the market over the short-term, the GDR Model remains slightly short/flat the market.