S&P 500 Daily Perspective for Wed 8 Oct 2025

GDR Model Performance

Please see the Performance page for more detailed performance numbers, how they’re calculated, and a chart.

For the fine print (a.k.a. the lawyer-approved stuff), don’t miss the Disclaimers section—it’s where all the “officially important” bits live!

GDR Model Outlook

Overall Outlook (as of 7 Oct 2025): NEUTRAL. The weakness the GDR Model started to pick up on recently has continued for some time now. The strength seen towards the end of last week seems to have mostly vanished so the market is likely back to a state of indecision.

Fundamentals Outlook (as of 30 Sep 2025): Rich. The model has adjusted valuations slightly upward following the release of new data. Going forward GDR Model positioning should tactically tilt a little more towards the long side, all else equal. Note that this is just a barometer to help guide longer-term decision-making rather than short-term market timing.

IMPORTANT NOTE: it’s unknown what the impact of tariffs on valuations (or what the ultimate level of the tariffs themselves) will actually be on valuations. Rather than make tariff-related assumptions to adjust the model accordingly, the Fundamentals Outlook will remain fully data-driven as it’s always been. All other portions of the model are entirely unaffected.

Long-Term Outlook (as of 3 Oct 2025): Neutral. Even though there wasn’t an upgrade to the long-term outlook, it did show some improvement and was better able to hold on to strength last week. If this tendency continues, it’s likely on the cusp of turning bullish again.

Short-Term Outlook (as of 7 Oct 2025): Bearish. The short-term outlook dropped back down to bearish. This effectively lowers the odds of a sustained rally materially at this point.

Breadth Outlook (as of 7 Oct 2025): Neutral. Breadth has been downgraded to neutral, although it was a borderline case today.

Volatility Outlook (as of 7 Oct 2025): Calm. The volatility outlook is in calm/stable waters, which, while sustained, will likely help protect against serious sell-offs and lift prices higher.

GDR Model Position

The GDR Model went flat around mid September after it picked up on fresh weakness. For now, the model is pointing towards indecision in the market, but if recent strength continues it will likely reopen a long position relatively soon.