S&P 500 Daily Perspective for Thu 24 Apr 2025

GDR Model Performance

Please see the Performance page for more detailed performance numbers, how they’re calculated, and a chart.

For the fine print (a.k.a. the lawyer-approved stuff), don’t miss the Disclaimers section—it’s where all the “officially important” bits live!

GDR Model Outlook

Overall Outlook (as of 4 Apr 2025): BEARISH TO NEUTRAL. The serious sell-off the model had been pointing towards since February is now well underway. The model’s components are mostly aligned on the bearish side, although today looked strikingly bullish.

Fundamentals Outlook (as of 27 Mar 2025): Fair Value. The model has adjusted valuations upward following the release of new data. Going forward GDR Model positioning should tactically tilt more towards the long side, all else equal. Note that this is just a barometer to help guide longer-term decision-making rather than short-term market timing.

IMPORTANT NOTE REGARDING THE FUNDAMENTALS OUTLOOK: given the magnitude of the likely economic impact from the tariffs implemented by the US administration, and that the data that goes into this portion of the model comes with a delay, this part of the model is most likely inaccurate for the foreseeable future. I will keep updating it as usual, but please be aware of this. All other portions of the model are entirely unaffected.

Long-Term Outlook (as of 17 Apr 2025): Bearish. There has been persistent weakness over the long-term timeframe, but there was some slight strength to end the week.

Short-Term Outlook (as of 23 Apr 2025): Neutral. The market has been broadly strong of recent. Notable this is the kind of strength that has been largely absent since at least February.

Breadth Outlook (as of 23 Apr 2025): Bullish. By itself this upgrade isn’t very meaningful, but if the model’s other components start to shift the same direction there may be a nascent recovery under way.

Volatility Outlook (as of 23 Apr 2025): Shaky. A shaky (or volatile) outlook allows for the market to have deeper sell-off but also nasty short-covering rallies along the way. If a recovery is under way, it will be confirmed if the volatility outlook improves to at least stable and sustains that level or better for a few days.

GDR Model Position

The GDR Model currently has a sizable long position. This is a valuation-based position so note that despite its size, the model certainly doesn’t see the market as nearly strong enough (yet) to warrant a more substantial long position based on market timing.