S&P 500 Daily Perspective for Mon 6 Oct 2025

GDR Model Performance

Please see the Performance page for more detailed performance numbers, how they’re calculated, and a chart.

For the fine print (a.k.a. the lawyer-approved stuff), don’t miss the Disclaimers section—it’s where all the “officially important” bits live!

GDR Model Outlook

Overall Outlook (as of 3 Oct 2025): NEUTRAL TO BULLISH. The weakness the GDR Model started to pick up on recently has continued for some time now, but towards the end of last week there were signs of restrengthening. If this is sustained, the model is likely to flip back to bullish once again.

Fundamentals Outlook (as of 30 Sep 2025): Rich. The model has adjusted valuations slightly upward following the release of new data. Going forward GDR Model positioning should tactically tilt a little more towards the long side, all else equal. Note that this is just a barometer to help guide longer-term decision-making rather than short-term market timing.

IMPORTANT NOTE: it’s unknown what the impact of tariffs on valuations (or what the ultimate level of the tariffs themselves) will actually be on valuations. Rather than make tariff-related assumptions to adjust the model accordingly, the Fundamentals Outlook will remain fully data-driven as it’s always been. All other portions of the model are entirely unaffected.

Long-Term Outlook (as of 3 Oct 2025): Neutral. Even though there wasn’t an upgrade to the long-term outlook, it did show some improvement and was better able to hold on to strength last week. If this tendency continues, it’s likely on the cusp of turning bullish again.

Short-Term Outlook (as of 3 Oct 2025): Neutral. The market was strong throughout the day, and this strength was not ever in question even through the afternoon liquidation. There’s a chance the market may have found renewed strength.

Breadth Outlook (as of 3 Oct 2025): Bullish. Breadth is bullish. Regardless, this data point is only important when all of the model’s components are aligned.

Volatility Outlook (as of 3 Oct 2025): Calm. The volatility outlook is in calm/stable waters, which, while sustained, will likely help protect against serious sell-offs and lift prices higher.

GDR Model Position

The GDR Model went flat around mid September after it picked up on fresh weakness. For now, the model is pointing towards indecision in the market, but if recent strength continues it will likely reopen a long position relatively soon.