S&P 500 Daily Perspective for Thu 23 Oct 2025

GDR Model Performance

Please see the Performance page for more detailed performance numbers, how they’re calculated, and a chart.

For the fine print (a.k.a. the lawyer-approved stuff), don’t miss the Disclaimers section—it’s where all the “officially important” bits live!

GDR Model Outlook

Overall Outlook (as of 22 Oct 2025): NEUTRAL TO BULLISH. The GDR Model has been pointing to an indecisive market, but there are some nascent signs of strength.

Fundamentals Outlook (as of 20 Oct 2025): Rich. The model has adjusted valuations slightly upward following the release of new data. Going forward GDR Model positioning should tactically tilt a little more towards the long side, all else equal. Note that this is just a barometer to help guide longer-term decision-making rather than short-term market timing.

IMPORTANT NOTE: it’s unknown what the impact of tariffs on valuations (or what the ultimate level of the tariffs themselves) will actually be on valuations. Rather than make tariff-related assumptions to adjust the model accordingly, the Fundamentals Outlook will remain fully data-driven as it’s always been. All other portions of the model are entirely unaffected.

Long-Term Outlook (as of 17 Oct 2025): Neutral. Any hope for renewed strength all but vanished at the end of the week of the 6th. Since then, the market has continued to show weakness amidst the frequent back-and-forth in prices.

Short-Term Outlook (as of 22 Oct 2025): Bullish. The market showed strength in the short-term timeframe for the third day in a row and seems to be showing sustained improvement so far.

Breadth Outlook (as of 22 Oct 2025): Neutral. Breadth was downgraded today, but it was a borderline case. This is especially notable given that today was a down day in the market.

Volatility Outlook (as of 22 Oct 2025): Stable. The volatility outlook deteriorated slightly today, but the bullish undertone here remains in place.

GDR Model Position

The GDR Model has reduced its slight short position. The model is still essentially flat the market, but this is a sign that the model sees enough of an improvement in outlook to want to increase its position tentatively.