S&P 500 Daily Perspective for Mon 5 Jan 2026

GDR Model Performance

Please see the Performance page for more detailed performance numbers, how they’re calculated, and a chart.

For the fine print (a.k.a. the lawyer-approved stuff), don’t miss the Disclaimers section—it’s where all the “officially important” bits live!

GDR Model Outlook

Overall Outlook (as of 2 Jan 2026): NEUTRAL TO BULLISH. Enough of the model’s components have deteriorated that the overall read on the market has dropped to neutral to bullish. For now this seems to be mostly indecision…

Fundamentals Outlook (as of 24 Dec 2025): Fair Value/Rich. The model has adjusted valuations slightly upward following the release of new data. Going forward GDR Model positioning should tactically tilt a little more towards the long side, all else equal. Note that this is just a barometer to help guide longer-term decision-making rather than short-term market timing.

Long-Term Outlook (as of 2 Jan 2026): Bullish. The market remains strong on the long-term timeframe.

Short-Term Outlook (as of 2 Jan 2026): Neutral. The market restrengthened to close the week though there is still a tiny bit of indecision lingering.

Breadth Outlook (as of 2 Jan 2026): Bullish. Breadth improved all the way from bearish to bullish to close out the week. This is in line with the strong close in both the long and short-term outlooks.

Volatility Outlook (as of 2 Jan 2026): Calm. Even though the recent back and forth has been entirely between positive categories (calm and stable), it’s still something to note…

GDR Model Position

The market has weakened a bit this week so the GDR Model has closed its long position and is now mostly flat.