S&P 500 Daily Perspective for Fri 24 Oct 2025

GDR Model Performance

Please see the Performance page for more detailed performance numbers, how they’re calculated, and a chart.

For the fine print (a.k.a. the lawyer-approved stuff), don’t miss the Disclaimers section—it’s where all the “officially important” bits live!

GDR Model Outlook

Overall Outlook (as of 23 Oct 2025): NEUTRAL TO BULLISH. The GDR Model has been pointing to an indecisive market, but there are some nascent signs of strength.

Fundamentals Outlook (as of 20 Oct 2025): Rich. The model has adjusted valuations slightly upward following the release of new data. Going forward GDR Model positioning should tactically tilt a little more towards the long side, all else equal. Note that this is just a barometer to help guide longer-term decision-making rather than short-term market timing.

IMPORTANT NOTE: it’s unknown what the impact of tariffs on valuations (or what the ultimate level of the tariffs themselves) will actually be on valuations. Rather than make tariff-related assumptions to adjust the model accordingly, the Fundamentals Outlook will remain fully data-driven as it’s always been. All other portions of the model are entirely unaffected.

Long-Term Outlook (as of 17 Oct 2025): Neutral. Any hope for renewed strength all but vanished at the end of the week of the 6th. Since then, the market has continued to show weakness amidst the frequent back-and-forth in prices.

Short-Term Outlook (as of 23 Oct 2025): Bullish. The market has shown strength in the short-term timeframe for several days in a row. This is starting to look sustainable.

Breadth Outlook (as of 23 Oct 2025): Bullish. Breadth is back up to bullish. Given the improvement in the other components of the model, this is an encouraging sign.

Volatility Outlook (as of 23 Oct 2025): Calm. The volatility outlook has been upgraded back to calm, which underpins the nascent bullish undertone.

GDR Model Position

The GDR Model recently reduced its slightly short position. The model is still essentially flat the market, but this is a sign that the model sees enough of an improvement in outlook to want to increase its position tentatively.