S&P 500 Daily Perspective for Mon 14 Jul 2025

GDR Model Performance

Please see the Performance page for more detailed performance numbers, how they’re calculated, and a chart.

For the fine print (a.k.a. the lawyer-approved stuff), don’t miss the Disclaimers section—it’s where all the “officially important” bits live!

GDR Model Outlook

Overall Outlook (as of 11 Jul 2025): BULLISH. The market is in the midst of an upside breakout, although there was some weakness to end last week. This can turn into meaningful weakness over time or it might quietly resolve itself - at this point, it’s too soon to tell.

Fundamentals Outlook (as of 26 Jun 2025): Fair Value/Rich. The model has adjusted valuations slightly downward following the release of new data. Going forward GDR Model positioning should tactically tilt a little less towards the long side, all else equal. Note that this is just a barometer to help guide longer-term decision-making rather than short-term market timing.

IMPORTANT NOTE: it’s unknown what the impact of tariffs on valuations (or what the ultimate level of the tariffs themselves) will actually be on valuations. Rather than make tariff-related assumptions to adjust the model accordingly, the Fundamentals Outlook will remain fully data-driven as it’s always been. All other portions of the model are entirely unaffected.

Long-Term Outlook (as of 11 Jul 2025): Bullish. The market remains strong from a long-term perspective, but last Friday closed on a weak note.

Short-Term Outlook (as of 11 Jul 2025): Bullish. The short-term outlook closed strong today yet again, adding to its already long streak of strong closes.

Breadth Outlook (as of 11 Jul 2025): Bullish. Breadth is in line with the rest of the model’s components on the bullish side.

Volatility Outlook (as of 11 Jul 2025): Calm. If the volatility outlook remains stable or calm, the market is more likely to continue drifting upwards while at the same time meaningful sell-offs are unlikely.

GDR Model Position

Despite current market strength, the GDR Model has closed its long position and gone to essentially flat as it sees reduced odds of further upside at this point.