S&P 500 Daily Perspective for Wed 24 Sep 2025
GDR Model Performance
Please see the Performance page for more detailed performance numbers, how they’re calculated, and a chart.
For the fine print (a.k.a. the lawyer-approved stuff), don’t miss the Disclaimers section—it’s where all the “officially important” bits live!
GDR Model Outlook
Overall Outlook (as of 23 Sep 2025): BULLISH TO NEUTRAL. After picking up on increasing strength over the recent days, the GDR Model has detected fresh weakness in the market to close the week. Either some sustained strength comes into the market to support it or the odds of the current rally continuing much further are likely low.
Fundamentals Outlook (as of 23 Sep 2025): Fair Value/Rich. The model has adjusted valuations slightly upward following the release of new data. Going forward GDR Model positioning should tactically tilt a little more towards the long side, all else equal. Note that this is just a barometer to help guide longer-term decision-making rather than short-term market timing.
IMPORTANT NOTE: it’s unknown what the impact of tariffs on valuations (or what the ultimate level of the tariffs themselves) will actually be on valuations. Rather than make tariff-related assumptions to adjust the model accordingly, the Fundamentals Outlook will remain fully data-driven as it’s always been. All other portions of the model are entirely unaffected.
Long-Term Outlook (as of 19 Sep 2025): Neutral. Another weak close this week and the long-term outlook has been downgraded to neutral. It’s notable that despite the rally, the market has been unable to hold on to any strength for long enough. Every time there has been some strength, it seems to fade away relatively quickly.
Short-Term Outlook (as of 23 Sep 2025): Bullish. The day started strong, but weakness creeped in throughout. It’s notable that the market has been hitting new highs while showing so much weakness throughout…
Breadth Outlook (as of 23 Sep 2025): Bullish. The bullish alignment across all of the model’s components makes this a meaningful data point.
Volatility Outlook (as of 23 Sep 2025): Stable. The volatility outlook is in calm/stable waters, which, while sustained, will likely help protect against serious sell-offs and lift prices higher. However, it is notable that the volatility outlook has been slowly deteriorating in the midst of an uptrend…
GDR Model Position
The GDR Model has picked up on fresh weakness to end last week and thus it remains effectively flat.
