S&P 500 Daily Perspective for Wed 28 May 2025

GDR Model Performance

Please see the Performance page for more detailed performance numbers, how they’re calculated, and a chart.

For the fine print (a.k.a. the lawyer-approved stuff), don’t miss the Disclaimers section—it’s where all the “officially important” bits live!

GDR Model Outlook

Overall Outlook (as of 27 May 2025): NEUTRAL TO BULLISH. Following a quick break, the market seems to be in the process of lining up another bullish swing.

Fundamentals Outlook (as of 27 Mar 2025): Fair Value. The model has adjusted valuations upward following the release of new data. Going forward GDR Model positioning should tactically tilt more towards the long side, all else equal. Note that this is just a barometer to help guide longer-term decision-making rather than short-term market timing.

IMPORTANT NOTE REGARDING THE FUNDAMENTALS OUTLOOK: given the magnitude of the likely economic impact from the tariffs implemented by the US administration, and that the data that goes into this portion of the model comes with a delay, this part of the model is most likely inaccurate for the foreseeable future. I will keep updating it as usual, but please be aware of this. All other portions of the model are entirely unaffected.

Long-Term Outlook (as of 23 May 2025): Bullish. Despite the shakeup last week, the market remains strong from a long-term perspective.

Short-Term Outlook (as of 27 May 2025): Bearish. Even though there is no change here, the market showed significant strength today. If sustained, the short-term outlook should be upgraded soon.

Breadth Outlook (as of 27 May 2025): Bullish. Today’s upgrade may signal a fresh upward swing coming.

Volatility Outlook (as of 27 May 2025): Stable. Even though the volatility outlook dropped to shaky to end last week, there is a chance it may have been short-lived. If this component stays at stable or better, the market should drift upwards.

GDR Model Position

The GDR Model has boosted its long position modestly. This reflects the rising odds of another swing upward.