S&P 500 Daily Perspective for Mon 18 Aug 2025

GDR Model Performance

Please see the Performance page for more detailed performance numbers, how they’re calculated, and a chart.

For the fine print (a.k.a. the lawyer-approved stuff), don’t miss the Disclaimers section—it’s where all the “officially important” bits live!

GDR Model Outlook

Overall Outlook (as of 15 Aug 2025): NEUTRAL. The GDR Model is picking up on plenty of indecision in the market despite the rally over the last several days. A sell-off may be off the table for now, but that can quickly change.

Fundamentals Outlook (as of 15 Aug 2025): Fair Value/Rich. The model has adjusted valuations slightly downward following the release of new data. Going forward GDR Model positioning should tactically tilt a little less towards the long side, all else equal. Note that this is just a barometer to help guide longer-term decision-making rather than short-term market timing.

IMPORTANT NOTE: it’s unknown what the impact of tariffs on valuations (or what the ultimate level of the tariffs themselves) will actually be on valuations. Rather than make tariff-related assumptions to adjust the model accordingly, the Fundamentals Outlook will remain fully data-driven as it’s always been. All other portions of the model are entirely unaffected.

Long-Term Outlook (as of 15 Aug 2025): Bearish. The long-term outlook remains bearish and a meaningful sell-off is well within the realm of possibility from this perspective. This is in spite of the market’s rising prices of late.

Short-Term Outlook (as of 15 Aug 2025): Bullish. The market showed indecision throughout the day but had a stronger close, so the short-term outlook back up remains bullish.

Breadth Outlook (as of 15 Aug 2025): Bullish. Despite the indecisive market over the last couple of days, breadth remains bullish.

Volatility Outlook (as of 15 Aug 2025): Calm. The volatility outlook is in calm waters, which may get in the way of any serious sell-offs and will likely lift prices higher, if sustained.

GDR Model Position

Despite the higher prices, the GDR Model still detects indecision in the market, therefore it will keep its flat to slightly short positioning.