S&P 500 Daily Perspective for Wed 30 Jul 2025

GDR Model Performance

Please see the Performance page for more detailed performance numbers, how they’re calculated, and a chart.

For the fine print (a.k.a. the lawyer-approved stuff), don’t miss the Disclaimers section—it’s where all the “officially important” bits live!

GDR Model Outlook

Overall Outlook (as of 29 Jul 2025): MOSTLY BULLISH. The market is in the midst of a breakout. However, there has been plenty of intermittent weakness to go around. This has the potential to turn into a meaningful sell-off, but it is also possible that it might quietly resolve itself into nothing - at this point, it’s too soon to tell.

Fundamentals Outlook (as of 26 Jun 2025): Fair Value/Rich. The model has adjusted valuations slightly downward following the release of new data. Going forward GDR Model positioning should tactically tilt a little less towards the long side, all else equal. Note that this is just a barometer to help guide longer-term decision-making rather than short-term market timing.

IMPORTANT NOTE: it’s unknown what the impact of tariffs on valuations (or what the ultimate level of the tariffs themselves) will actually be on valuations. Rather than make tariff-related assumptions to adjust the model accordingly, the Fundamentals Outlook will remain fully data-driven as it’s always been. All other portions of the model are entirely unaffected.

Long-Term Outlook (as of 25 Jul 2025): Neutral. The long-term outlook has worsened of recent and is now going through a period of indecision. This can resolve itself without a meaningful impact in the market, but it’s starting to become a concern.

Short-Term Outlook (as of 29 Jul 2025): Bullish. The short-term outlook showed decent strength towards the end of last week, but it has been relatively weak to start this week. Overall, there has been weakness and indecision recently and tomorrow’s Fed announcement may be of interest.

Breadth Outlook (as of 28 Jul 2025): Bullish. Breadth is in line with most of the model’s other components.

Volatility Outlook (as of 29 Jul 2025): Calm. If the volatility outlook remains stable or calm, the market is more likely to continue drifting upwards while at the same time meaningful sell-offs are unlikely.

GDR Model Position

The GDR Model is going back to a modest short position after the market made further gains last week. Despite the breakout, the model remains unconvinced of the underlying strength in the market.