S&P 500 Daily Perspective for Mon 17 Mar 2025

GDR Model Performance

Please see the Performance page for more detailed performance numbers, how they’re calculated, and a chart.

For the fine print (a.k.a. the lawyer-approved stuff), don’t miss the Disclaimers section—it’s where all the “officially important” bits live!

GDR Model Outlook

The GDR Model is bearish and the serious sell-off the model has been pointing towards for weeks is now well underway. There was some nascent strength to end last week, but only if there is followthrough next week will the market begin to truly recover.

Fundamentals Outlook (as of 10 Mar 2025): the valuation portion of the model has dropped back down to fair value after many months, which implies valuations are more attractive now. Note that this is just a barometer to help guide longer-term decision-making rather than short-term market timing.

Long-Term Outlook (as of 14 Mar 2025): the long-term outlook remains bearish, but has a strong close last week.There has been persistent weakness over the long-term timeframe and the market is unlikely to fully recover until this weakness gives way to renewed strength. Could last week’s strength show followthrough?

Short-Term Outlook (as of 14 Mar 2025): the short-term outlook is bearish but finally had a strong close last Friday. For the market to decisively recover, this strength has to be sustained for several days.

Breadth Outlook (as of 14 Mar 2025): breadth improved to neutral, but it’s borderline. For now it does not change the overall read of the model.

Volatility Outlook (as of 14 Mar 2025): the volatility outlook remains shaky. As long as this component is shaky or volatile, there won’t be much to stop the market from a significant sell-off (along with nasty short-covering rallies in between).

GDR Model Position

The GDR Model has opened a modest long position. This still falls in the camp of tactical positioning rather than a change in sentiment - the model still reads the market as being bearish.