S&P 500 Daily Perspective for Fri 21 Mar 2025

GDR Model Performance

Please see the Performance page for more detailed performance numbers, how they’re calculated, and a chart.

For the fine print (a.k.a. the lawyer-approved stuff), don’t miss the Disclaimers section—it’s where all the “officially important” bits live!

GDR Model Outlook

The GDR Model is neutral. The serious sell-off the model had been pointing towards for weeks is now well underway. However, there is some nascent strength in the market, which if sustained could lead a market recovery.

Fundamentals Outlook (as of 10 Mar 2025): the valuation portion of the model has dropped back down to fair value after many months, which implies valuations are more attractive now. Note that this is just a barometer to help guide longer-term decision-making rather than short-term market timing.

Long-Term Outlook (as of 14 Mar 2025): the long-term outlook remains bearish, but had a strong close last week.There has been persistent weakness over the long-term timeframe and the market is unlikely to fully recover until this weakness gives way to renewed strength. Could last week’s strength show followthrough?

Short-Term Outlook (as of 20 Mar 2025): the short-term outlook remains bullish after yet another strong close. This can portend a recovery in the market if sustained.

Breadth Outlook (as of 20 Mar 2025): breadth remains neutral, but for now it doesn’t have much impact on the overall read of the model.

Volatility Outlook (as of 20 Mar 2025): the volatility outlook is downgraded back to shaky. The recent back and forth between shaky and stable highlights the current indecision in the market.

GDR Model Position

The GDR Model has a modest long position. This still falls in the camp of tactical positioning rather than a change in sentiment - the model still doesn’t see the market as strong enough to warrant a more substantial long position.