S&P 500 Daily Perspective for Wed 26 Nov 2025
GDR Model Performance
Please see the Performance page for more detailed performance numbers, how they’re calculated, and a chart.
For the fine print (a.k.a. the lawyer-approved stuff), don’t miss the Disclaimers section—it’s where all the “officially important” bits live!
GDR Model Outlook
Overall Outlook (as of 25 Nov 2025): BULLISH. The model is back to fully bullish, which means that, according to its framework, the odds of continued upside are relatively high. Let’s see if it sticks this time…
Fundamentals Outlook (as of 24 Nov 2025): Rich. The model has adjusted valuations slightly upward following the release of new data. Going forward GDR Model positioning should tactically tilt a little more towards the long side, all else equal. Note that this is just a barometer to help guide longer-term decision-making rather than short-term market timing.
IMPORTANT NOTE: it’s unknown what the impact of tariffs on valuations (or what the ultimate level of the tariffs themselves) will actually be on valuations. Rather than make tariff-related assumptions to adjust the model accordingly, the Fundamentals Outlook will remain fully data-driven as it’s always been. All other portions of the model are entirely unaffected.
Long-Term Outlook (as of 21 Nov 2025): Bullish. The long-term outlook showed real strength to end last week, and it remains bullish.
Short-Term Outlook (as of 25 Nov 2025): Bullish. The market has shown strength three days in a row, enough for another upgrade.
Breadth Outlook (as of 25 Nov 2025): Bullish. Once again in line with the short-term outlook, breadth has also improved to bullish. Given that all of the model’s components are pointing in the same direction, this is a significant reading.
Volatility Outlook (as of 25 Nov 2025): Stable. The volatility outlook also improved for the second day in a row, and this time we’re back to positive readings. If sustained, the odds of a new swing up would increase significantly.
GDR Model Position
Following the notable strength that has persisted since the end last week, the GDR Model has opened a significant long position.
