S&P 500 Daily Perspective for Mon 15 Sep 2025

GDR Model Performance

Please see the Performance page for more detailed performance numbers, how they’re calculated, and a chart.

For the fine print (a.k.a. the lawyer-approved stuff), don’t miss the Disclaimers section—it’s where all the “officially important” bits live!

GDR Model Outlook

Overall Outlook (as of 12 Sep 2025): BULLISH. The GDR Model has been picking up on notable strength in the market for a while now and it’s now fully bullish. However, sudden drops on strength to close this week could turn into something more serious down the road…

Fundamentals Outlook (as of 28 Aug 2025): Fair Value/Rich. The model has adjusted valuations slightly upward following the release of new data. Going forward GDR Model positioning should tactically tilt a little more towards the long side, all else equal. Note that this is just a barometer to help guide longer-term decision-making rather than short-term market timing.

IMPORTANT NOTE: it’s unknown what the impact of tariffs on valuations (or what the ultimate level of the tariffs themselves) will actually be on valuations. Rather than make tariff-related assumptions to adjust the model accordingly, the Fundamentals Outlook will remain fully data-driven as it’s always been. All other portions of the model are entirely unaffected.

Long-Term Outlook (as of 12 Sep 2025): Bullish. The long-term outlook posted a weak close to the week. It’s not material weakness, however, the speed with which this portion of the model went from being unquestionably strong back to weakness is notable.