S&P 500 Daily Perspective for Thu 12 Mar 2026

GDR Model Performance

Please see the Performance page for more detailed performance numbers, how they’re calculated, and a chart.

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GDR Model Outlook

Overall Outlook (as of 11 Mar 2026): NEUTRAL. Market conditions worsened materially Thursday and Friday, and the model is showing cross-winds yet again. There has been remarkably little to no followthrough in either direction so far this year…

Fundamentals Outlook (as of 24 Dec 2025): Fair Value/Rich. The model has adjusted valuations slightly upward following the release of new data. Going forward GDR Model positioning should tactically tilt a little more towards the long side, all else equal. Note that this is just a barometer to help guide longer-term decision-making rather than short-term market timing.

Long-Term Outlook (as of 6 Mar 2026): Bullish. The market showed weakness at the end of the week. For now there is no downgrade, though this is something to note.

Short-Term Outlook (as of 11 Mar 2026): Bearish. The short-term outlook showed weakness throughout the day yet again. Weakness on the short-term outlook has persisted for several days now.

Breadth Outlook (as of 11 Mar 2026): Neutral. Breadth is neutral, but at this point there isn’t much value in this reading.

Volatility Outlook (as of 11 Mar 2026): Shaky. Volatility improved today back to shaky. Regardless, the expectation is for wide ranges whether that comes in the form of bigger sell-offs or nasty short-covering rallies.

GDR Model Position

The market has deteriorated materially so the model has closed its long position last week and is essentially flat for now.