S&P 500 Daily Perspective for Thu 4 Dec 2025

GDR Model Performance

Please see the Performance page for more detailed performance numbers, how they’re calculated, and a chart.

For the fine print (a.k.a. the lawyer-approved stuff), don’t miss the Disclaimers section—it’s where all the “officially important” bits live!

GDR Model Outlook

Overall Outlook (as of 3 Dec 2025): BULLISH. The model is back to fully bullish, which means that, according to its framework, the odds of continued upside are relatively high. Let’s see if it sticks this time…

Fundamentals Outlook (as of 24 Nov 2025): Rich. The model has adjusted valuations slightly upward following the release of new data. Going forward GDR Model positioning should tactically tilt a little more towards the long side, all else equal. Note that this is just a barometer to help guide longer-term decision-making rather than short-term market timing.

IMPORTANT NOTE: it’s unknown what the impact of tariffs on valuations (or what the ultimate level of the tariffs themselves) will actually be on valuations. Rather than make tariff-related assumptions to adjust the model accordingly, the Fundamentals Outlook will remain fully data-driven as it’s always been. All other portions of the model are entirely unaffected.

Long-Term Outlook (as of 28 Nov 2025): Bullish. The market is strong on long-term timeframe.

Short-Term Outlook (as of 3 Dec 2025): Bullish. The market remains strong on short-term timeframe.

Breadth Outlook (as of 3 Dec 2025): Bullish. Given that all of the model’s components are pointing in the same direction, this is a significant reading.

Volatility Outlook (as of 3 Dec 2025): Calm. The volatility outlook is well into positive territory. If sustained, the odds of a new swing up increase significantly.

GDR Model Position

Following the notable strength that has now persisted for a couple of weeks, the GDR Model is holding a significant long position.