S&P 500 Daily Perspective for Thu 16 Oct 2025

GDR Model Performance

Please see the Performance page for more detailed performance numbers, how they’re calculated, and a chart.

For the fine print (a.k.a. the lawyer-approved stuff), don’t miss the Disclaimers section—it’s where all the “officially important” bits live!

GDR Model Outlook

Overall Outlook (as of 15 Oct 2025): NEUTRAL TO BULLISH. The GDR Model has been pointing to an indecisive market, however recent strength suggests that there’s a possibility the recent indecision may be coming to an end.

Fundamentals Outlook (as of 15 Oct 2025): Rich. The model has adjusted valuations slightly upward following the release of new data. Going forward GDR Model positioning should tactically tilt a little more towards the long side, all else equal. Note that this is just a barometer to help guide longer-term decision-making rather than short-term market timing.

IMPORTANT NOTE: it’s unknown what the impact of tariffs on valuations (or what the ultimate level of the tariffs themselves) will actually be on valuations. Rather than make tariff-related assumptions to adjust the model accordingly, the Fundamentals Outlook will remain fully data-driven as it’s always been. All other portions of the model are entirely unaffected.

Long-Term Outlook (as of 10 Oct 2025): Neutral. Any hope for renewed strength all but vanished at the end of last week. Not only was Friday’s sell-off nasty, the weakness behind was fully confirmed by the model’s read of the market.

Short-Term Outlook (as of 15 Oct 2025): Bullish. The market was strong throughout the day and showed enough resilience for the short-term outlook to be upgraded further. Let’s see if it sticks this time…

Breadth Outlook (as of 15 Oct 2025): Bullish. Breadth has improved further. Given that this comes along with an upgrade in the short-term outlook, there’s a fair chance the market may be well into the process of finally picking a direction.

Volatility Outlook (as of 15 Oct 2025): Stable. The volatility outlook is in calm/stable waters, which, while sustained, is more likely to help protect against serious sell-offs and lift prices higher.

GDR Model Position

The GDR Model has been essentially flat since around mid September after it picked up on fresh weakness. For as long as the market remains indecisive, the model is likely to remain mostly flat.