S&P 500 Daily Perspective for Fri 30 May 2025
GDR Model Performance
Please see the Performance page for more detailed performance numbers, how they’re calculated, and a chart.
For the fine print (a.k.a. the lawyer-approved stuff), don’t miss the Disclaimers section—it’s where all the “officially important” bits live!
GDR Model Outlook
Overall Outlook (as of 29 May 2025): MOSTLY BULLISH. Following a quick break, the market seems to be in the process of lining up another bullish swing.
Fundamentals Outlook (as of 29 May 2025): Fair Value. The model has adjusted valuations slightly downward following the release of new data. Going forward GDR Model positioning should tactically tilt a little less towards the long side, all else equal. Note that this is just a barometer to help guide longer-term decision-making rather than short-term market timing.
IMPORTANT NOTE: it’s unknown what the impact of tariffs on valuations (or what the ultimate level of the tariffs themselves) will actually be on valuations. Rather than make tariff-related assumptions to adjust the model accordingly, the Fundamentals Outlook will remain fully data-driven as it’s always been. All other portions of the model are entirely unaffected.
Long-Term Outlook (as of 23 May 2025): Bullish. Despite the shakeup last week, the market remains strong from a long-term perspective.
Short-Term Outlook (as of 29 May 2025): Neutral. The short-term outlook keeps playing hot and cold, but perhaps it will now start to line up with the rest of the model’s components…
Breadth Outlook (as of 29 May 2025): Bullish. Breadth remains bullish along with the rest of the model except for the short-term outlook.
Volatility Outlook (as of 29 May 2025): Stable. Even though the volatility outlook dropped to shaky to end last week, there is a chance it may have been short-lived. If this component sustains at stable or better, the market should drift upwards over time.
GDR Model Position
The GDR Model has a modest long position as the market remains indecisive on direction.
