S&P 500 Daily Perspective for Thu 4 Sep 2025

GDR Model Performance

Please see the Performance page for more detailed performance numbers, how they’re calculated, and a chart.

For the fine print (a.k.a. the lawyer-approved stuff), don’t miss the Disclaimers section—it’s where all the “officially important” bits live!

GDR Model Outlook

Overall Outlook (as of 3 Sep 2025): BULLISH TO NEUTRAL. The GDR Model has been picking up on notable strength in the market for a while now, which means the overall outlook is not far from turning fully bullish.

Fundamentals Outlook (as of 28 Aug 2025): Fair Value/Rich. The model has adjusted valuations slightly upward following the release of new data. Going forward GDR Model positioning should tactically tilt a little more towards the long side, all else equal. Note that this is just a barometer to help guide longer-term decision-making rather than short-term market timing.

IMPORTANT NOTE: it’s unknown what the impact of tariffs on valuations (or what the ultimate level of the tariffs themselves) will actually be on valuations. Rather than make tariff-related assumptions to adjust the model accordingly, the Fundamentals Outlook will remain fully data-driven as it’s always been. All other portions of the model are entirely unaffected.

Long-Term Outlook (as of 29 Aug 2025): Neutral. The long-term outlook has been upgraded to neutral as the market has maintained strength for some time now. It could be that the sell-off warning that started a month or two ago was a false alarm. At the very least, it seems like it’s been postponed at worst…

Short-Term Outlook (as of 3 Sep 2025): Bullish. The market barely managed to post a bullish close today. Moreover, while throughout the day there was plenty of indecision once again, the short-term outlook remains bullish at least for now…

Breadth Outlook (as of 3 Sep 2025): Bullish. Breadth is bullish, and given that the model is starting to align bullish overall, this is a meaningful reading.

Volatility Outlook (as of 3 Sep 2025): Calm. The volatility outlook is in calm waters, which, while sustained, will likely help protect against serious sell-offs and lift prices higher.

GDR Model Position

The market has been showing consistent strength for a while. As such, the GDR Model is carrying a meaningful long position.