S&P 500 Daily Perspective for Thu 30 Oct 2025

GDR Model Performance

Please see the Performance page for more detailed performance numbers, how they’re calculated, and a chart.

For the fine print (a.k.a. the lawyer-approved stuff), don’t miss the Disclaimers section—it’s where all the “officially important” bits live!

GDR Model Outlook

Overall Outlook (as of 29 Oct 2025): NEUTRAL TO BULLISH. The GDR Model noticed the market attempt to regain and maintain upward strength, but recent market developments are threatening this idea yet again. Whatever happens during the rest of this week will likely be critical going forward…

Fundamentals Outlook (as of 20 Oct 2025): Rich. The model has adjusted valuations slightly upward following the release of new data. Going forward GDR Model positioning should tactically tilt a little more towards the long side, all else equal. Note that this is just a barometer to help guide longer-term decision-making rather than short-term market timing.

IMPORTANT NOTE: it’s unknown what the impact of tariffs on valuations (or what the ultimate level of the tariffs themselves) will actually be on valuations. Rather than make tariff-related assumptions to adjust the model accordingly, the Fundamentals Outlook will remain fully data-driven as it’s always been. All other portions of the model are entirely unaffected.

Long-Term Outlook (as of 24 Oct 2025): Neutral. The long-term outlook improved notably this week, though not enough for an upgrade just yet. What happens next week will be key…

Short-Term Outlook (as of 29 Oct 2025): Bullish. The short-term outlook weakened materially intra-day following the Fed announcement and closed the day weak. A day or two won’t make a difference in the outlook as the model is designed to not overreact, but at this rate there may be a change coming soon.

Breadth Outlook (as of 29 Oct 2025): Bearish. Breadth dropped again and is now bearish. This data point supports the idea that despite the muted price action, the market was actually quite weak today.

Volatility Outlook (as of 29 Oct 2025): Calm. The volatility outlook remains calm, which underpins the nascent bullish undertone.

GDR Model Position

The GDR Model is back to a slightly short position. This is just a tactical adjustment as the model’s outlook on the market has been steadily heading towards bullish.