S&P 500 Daily Perspective for Fri 21 April 2023
Short-Term Balance going into Monthly Options Expiration
GDR Model Insights for the S&P 500
GDR Model Performance
This year has been challenging for the Model’s style due to low confidence in the market.
GDR Model Outlook
The overall Model is Neutral. Breadth is more solidly in the Neutral camp now, but the Short-Term Outlook is starting to be challenged. Beware of the potential for increased Volatility today due to monthly options expiration.
GDR Model Position
In line with the fragility of the current rally, the Model remains 100% in cash.
S&P 500 Futures Market Profile Analysis
Near-Term Outlook: Short-Term Balance, could go either way
Alternate Outlook: N/A
Key Levels for Today
Bullish: 4172 (Y’day High), 4188 (Top of Current Balance Zone), 4221 (Closes Gap Down)
Market Narrative
Yesterday the market opened on a Gap Down that was quickly filled. However, in line with Gap Trading Guidelines, the market broke later in the day as Value did not manage to get up to unchanged. While the recent trend line is clearly broken, yesterday was a Balanced day. Assuming nothing changes materially until the RTH Open, I will approach the day as a short-term Balance using Balance Trading Guidelines. The edges are yesterday’s High (4172) and Low (4136).
Today is monthly options expiration (OpEx). Occasionally this can add additional Volatility to the market.
Economic Calendar
9:45am - Manufacturing PMI