One Last S&P 500 Daily Post...
Same process. New chapter.
It feels strange to write this.
After more than four years of showing up every single day, this will be the last daily update. As I shift my focus toward institutional partnerships, continuing these posts no longer makes sense—but that doesn’t make it any less difficult to step away.
Thank you to everyone who has read, followed, and supported along the way. If you’ve been a paid subscriber, you’ll receive a pro-rated refund over the next several days.
I’ll still plan to check in quarterly and share live performance from my own account, so if you’d like to keep following the journey, feel free to stay subscribed.
For now, let’s do one final performance review.
GDR Model Performance and Review
Please see the Performance page for more detailed performance numbers, how they’re calculated, and a chart.
For the fine print (a.k.a. the lawyer-approved stuff), don’t miss the Disclaimers section—it’s where all the “officially important” bits live!
As of the end of April, the GDR Model returned 9.21% vs the S&P 500’s Total Return of 5.70%, outperforming the index by 351 basis points YTD in 2026.
Since the start of 2022, across multiple model iterations and upgrades, the GDR Model has returned 194.42% vs the S&P 500’s 61.10%, ahead by 13,332 basis points.
This equates to an annualized return of 28.31% for the GDR Model, compared with 11.64% for the S&P 500—an advantage of 1,667 basis points.
A Final Note…
I set out years ago with a simple goal: to consistently beat the market through timing. It took far longer than expected, involved more trial and error than I care to admit, and required building something that could operate without emotion—even when I couldn’t.
Looking back, the outcome matters—but the process matters more. So if there’s anything worth sharing after all this, it’s this:
Figure out who you are. If you don’t enjoy math and logic, building a quant model will feel like punishment. If balance sheets bore you, fundamental investing probably isn’t your path. This is already hard—don’t make it harder by choosing something that doesn’t fit you.
Be disciplined and consistent. Skill doesn’t develop without repetition. Improvement doesn’t happen without structure. And even with both, results won’t come unless you can execute consistently when it matters.
Find edge. Without edge, there is no long-term outcome—just noise. Edge doesn’t have to be obvious, but it does have to be real.
These are listed in reverse order of difficulty. Finding edge is hard. Discipline is harder. But understanding yourself—what you’re suited for, what you can sustain—that’s the hardest part.
In practice, you don’t solve these one by one. You work on all of them at once, imperfectly, and gradually refine them over time.
Thank you again for reading, following, and supporting.
Good luck.