ES Futures Daily Update - Tuesday 25 Oct 2022
The bullish move from the year's lows is built on decent structure - could we keep heading higher?
GDR Model Update
GDR Model Performance (2022): +25.58%
Market Tone: Bearish
Positioning: -50.00%
Commentary: Despite the rise in price in the S&P 500, the GDR Model continues firmly bearish. It will take a much stronger market to make the model’s Market Tone start to turn bullish, and thus for now opportunistic/tactical long positions should remain nimble and not overstay their welcome.
Short-Term ES Market Structure Update
The S&P 500 ~300 point rise from the year’s lows set on 13 Oct have been mostly on decent structure with secure lows on 10/13, 10/21 and today (10/24). There is only one short position trapped below between ~3570-3590.
ES futures had a bullish close today and is currently above the T+2 (Settlement) High, which may put pressure on trapped short positions below to cover even faster. As of now, there are better odds that ES futures continue going up in the near-term.
The next logical targets above are:
3900: start of drop from September FOMC announcement
3970: middle of a previous 7-day Balance Zone from mid-July
Achieving these upper targets would put previous poor structure between ~3980-4220 from August and September in play.
Potential Market-Moving Events
09:00am - S&P/Case-Shiller House Price Index
10:00am - Conference Board Consumer Confidence, Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index
01:55pm - FOMC Member Waller Speaks
Earnings (After Close): MSFT 0.00%↑, GOOGL 0.00%↑, V 0.00%↑