ES Futures Daily Insights - Tue 1 Nov 2022
ES futures market structure is beginning to tilt bearish - beware as we head into Fed day...
GDR Model Insights for the Week
GDR Model Performance (2022): +24.32%
Market Tone: Bearish
Positioning: -50.00% Short (previous day: -50.00% Short)
Commentary: today the GDR Model rejected an approach to initial bullish levels from last Friday. This likely does not bode well for long positions coming into the Fed’s Rate Decision but as always, it’s important to pay attention to what the market does next given the event-heavy week.
ES Market Structure Insights for Tomorrow
Today was a narrow range day dominated by short timeframe momentum traders. These type of days are very common 1-2 days ahead of major market moving events. The Market Profile suggests trapped short positions below the Point of Control (POC) while setting up a non-excess low that is likely to be taken out. Should today’s low hold through tomorrow, it is a key piece of information to carry forward into FOMC day on Wednesday.
For tomorrow, the expectation is for another narrow range day that is again dominated by short timeframe momentum traders, but don’t take this as a given - observe the market and let it tell you what the agenda is for the day.
Potential Market-Moving Events Tomorrow
09:45am - Manufacturing PMI
10:00am - ISM Manufacturing PMI, JOLTs Job Openings, ISM Manufacturing Employment