It feels strange to write this.

After more than four years of showing up every single day, this will be the last daily update. As I shift my focus toward institutional partnerships, continuing these posts no longer makes sense—but that doesn’t make it any less difficult to step away.

Thank you to everyone who has read, followed, and supported along the way. If you’ve been a paid subscriber, you’ll receive a pro-rated refund over the next several days.

I’ll still plan to check in quarterly and share live performance from my own account, so if you’d like to keep following the journey, feel free to stay subscribed.

For now, let’s do one final performance review.

GDR Model Performance and Review

Please see the Performance page for more detailed performance numbers, how they’re calculated, and a chart.

For the fine print (a.k.a. the lawyer-approved stuff), don’t miss the Disclaimers section—it’s where all the “officially important” bits live!

• As of the end of April, the GDR Model returned 9.21% vs the S&P 500’s Total Return of 5.70%, outperforming the index by 351 basis points YTD in 2026.

• Since the start of 2022, across multiple model iterations and upgrades, the GDR Model has returned 194.42% vs the S&P 500’s 61.10%, ahead by 13,332 basis points.

• This equates to an annualized return of 28.31% for the GDR Model, compared with 11.64% for the S&P 500—an advantage of 1,667 basis points.

A Final Note…

I set out years ago with a simple goal: to consistently beat the market through timing. It took far longer than expected, involved more trial and error than I care to admit, and required building something that could operate without emotion—even when I couldn’t.

Looking back, the outcome matters—but the process matters more. So if there’s anything worth sharing after all this, it’s this:

1. Figure out who you are. If you don’t enjoy math and logic, building a quant model will feel like punishment. If balance sheets bore you, fundamental investing probably isn’t your path. This is already hard—don’t make it harder by choosing something that doesn’t fit you.

2. Be disciplined and consistent. Skill doesn’t develop without repetition. Improvement doesn’t happen without structure. And even with both, results won’t come unless you can execute consistently when it matters.

3. Find edge. Without edge, there is no long-term outcome—just noise. Edge doesn’t have to be obvious, but it does have to be real.

These are listed in reverse order of difficulty. Finding edge is hard. Discipline is harder. But understanding yourself—what you’re suited for, what you can sustain—that’s the hardest part.

In practice, you don’t solve these one by one. You work on all of them at once, imperfectly, and gradually refine them over time.

Thank you again for reading, following, and supporting.

Good luck.

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Please see the Performance page for more detailed performance numbers, how they’re calculated, and a chart.

For the fine print (a.k.a. the lawyer-approved stuff), don’t miss the Disclaimers section—it’s where all the “officially important” bits live!

GDR Model Outlook

Overall Outlook (as of 29 Apr 2026): MOSTLY BULLISH. Market conditions have improved markedly and have been on a constant upward path. It’s interesting that the long-term component is lagging by so much though…

Fundamentals Outlook (as of 15 Apr 2026): Fair Value/Rich. The recent run-up in price has made fundamental valuations less attractive so the model is like to be more conservative on the long side going forward.

Long-Term Outlook (as of 24 Apr 2026): Bearish. The market remains bearish on the long-term timeframe, and this week closed out with weakness again. This is worth noting…

Short-Term Outlook (as of 29 Apr 2026): Bullish. The market was weak throughout the day. For now it’s just a bleep, but if sustained it could turn into something more…

Breadth Outlook (as of 29 Apr 2026): Neutral. Breadth dropped to neutral today. Could be nothing, but definitely something to be aware of…

Volatility Outlook (as of 29 Apr 2026): Calm. Volatility remains calm. If sustained, the expectation should start to shift to tighter ranges and a general upward drift.

GDR Model Position

The GDR Model’s read of the current market remains mostly bullish, but once again it’s choosing to take risk off the table as a precaution.

Subscribe now

Please see the Performance page for more detailed performance numbers, how they’re calculated, and a chart.

For the fine print (a.k.a. the lawyer-approved stuff), don’t miss the Disclaimers section—it’s where all the “officially important” bits live!

GDR Model Outlook

Overall Outlook (as of 28 Apr 2026): MOSTLY BULLISH. Market conditions have improved markedly and have been on a constant upward path. It’s interesting that the long-term component is lagging by so much…

Fundamentals Outlook (as of 15 Apr 2026): Fair Value/Rich. The recent run-up in price has made fundamental valuations less attractive so the model is like to be more conservative on the long side going forward.

Long-Term Outlook (as of 24 Apr 2026): Bearish. The market remains bearish on the long-term timeframe, and this week closed out with weakness again. This is worth noting…

Short-Term Outlook (as of 28 Apr 2026): Bullish. The market was strong throughout the day.

Breadth Outlook (as of 28 Apr 2026): Bullish. Breadth is back to bullish, confirming the model’s broad stance.

Volatility Outlook (as of 28 Apr 2026): Calm. Volatility remains calm. If sustained, the expectation should start to shift to tighter ranges and a general upward drift.

GDR Model Position

The GDR Model’s read of the current market remains mostly bullish, and it recently opted to add back some risk on the long side.

Subscribe now

Please see the Performance page for more detailed performance numbers, how they’re calculated, and a chart.

For the fine print (a.k.a. the lawyer-approved stuff), don’t miss the Disclaimers section—it’s where all the “officially important” bits live!

GDR Model Outlook

Overall Outlook (as of 27 Apr 2026): MOSTLY BULLISH. Market conditions have improved markedly and have been on a constant upward path. It’s interesting that the long-term component is lagging by so much…

Fundamentals Outlook (as of 15 Apr 2026): Fair Value/Rich. The recent run-up in price has made fundamental valuations less attractive so the model is like to be more conservative on the long side going forward.

Long-Term Outlook (as of 24 Apr 2026): Bearish. The market remains bearish on the long-term timeframe, and this week closed out with weakness again. This is worth noting…

Short-Term Outlook (as of 27 Apr 2026): Bullish. The market was strong throughout the day.

Breadth Outlook (as of 27 Apr 2026): Bullish. Breadth is back to bullish, confirming the model’s broad stance.

Volatility Outlook (as of 27 Apr 2026): Calm. Volatility remains calm. If sustained, the expectation should start to shift to tighter ranges and a general upward drift.

GDR Model Position

The GDR Model’s read of the current market remains mostly bullish, and at this point it’s opting to add back some risk on the long side.

Subscribe now

Please see the Performance page for more detailed performance numbers, how they’re calculated, and a chart.

For the fine print (a.k.a. the lawyer-approved stuff), don’t miss the Disclaimers section—it’s where all the “officially important” bits live!

GDR Model Outlook

Overall Outlook (as of 24 Apr 2026): MOSTLY BULLISH. Market conditions have improved markedly and have been on a constant upward path. It’s interesting that the long-term component is lagging by so much…

Fundamentals Outlook (as of 15 Apr 2026): Fair Value/Rich. The recent run-up in price has made fundamental valuations less attractive so the model is like to be more conservative on the long side going forward.

Long-Term Outlook (as of 24 Apr 2026): Bearish. The market remains bearish on the long-term timeframe, and this week closed out with weakness again. This is worth noting…

Short-Term Outlook (as of 24 Apr 2026): Bullish. The market was strong throughout the day.

Breadth Outlook (as of 24 Apr 2026): Bullish. Breadth is back to bullish, confirming the model’s broad stance.

Volatility Outlook (as of 24 Apr 2026): Calm. Volatility remains calm. If sustained, the expectation should start to shift to tighter ranges and a general upward drift.

GDR Model Position

The GDR Model’s read of the current market remains mostly bullish, and at this point it’s opting to add back some risk on the long side.

Subscribe now

Please see the Performance page for more detailed performance numbers, how they’re calculated, and a chart.

For the fine print (a.k.a. the lawyer-approved stuff), don’t miss the Disclaimers section—it’s where all the “officially important” bits live!

GDR Model Outlook

Overall Outlook (as of 23 Apr 2026): MOSTLY BULLISH. Market conditions have improved markedly and have been on a constant upward path. It’s interesting that the long-term component is lagging by so much…

Fundamentals Outlook (as of 15 Apr 2026): Fair Value/Rich. The recent run-up in price has made fundamental valuations less attractive so the model is like to be more conservative on the long side going forward.

Long-Term Outlook (as of 17 Apr 2026): Bearish. The market remains bearish on the long-term timeframe, but this week closed out with strength…

Short-Term Outlook (as of 23 Apr 2026): Bullish. The market was strong throughout the day.

Breadth Outlook (as of 23 Apr 2026): Neutral. Breadth ticked down to neutral. It’s worth paying attention as to whether this is just a bleep or something brewing…

Volatility Outlook (as of 23 Apr 2026): Calm. Volatility remains calm. If sustained, the expectation should start to shift to tighter ranges and a general upward drift.

GDR Model Position

The GDR Model’s read of the current market is mostly bullish, but at this point it’s opting to take some risk off at least temporarily. Positioning is now essentially flat.

Subscribe now

Please see the Performance page for more detailed performance numbers, how they’re calculated, and a chart.

For the fine print (a.k.a. the lawyer-approved stuff), don’t miss the Disclaimers section—it’s where all the “officially important” bits live!

GDR Model Outlook

Overall Outlook (as of 22 Apr 2026): MOSTLY BULLISH. Market conditions have improved markedly and have been on a constant upward path. It’s interesting that the long-term component is lagging by so much…

Fundamentals Outlook (as of 15 Apr 2026): Fair Value/Rich. The recent run-up in price has made fundamental valuations less attractive so the model is like to be more conservative on the long side going forward.

Long-Term Outlook (as of 17 Apr 2026): Bearish. The market remains bearish on the long-term timeframe, but this week closed out with strength…

Short-Term Outlook (as of 22 Apr 2026): Bullish. The market was strong throughout the day.

Breadth Outlook (as of 22 Apr 2026): Bullish. Breadth is back up to bullish and confirming the short-term strength.

Volatility Outlook (as of 22 Apr 2026): Calm. Volatility remains calm. If sustained, the expectation should start to shift to tighter ranges and a general upward drift.

GDR Model Position

The GDR Model’s read of the current market is mostly bullish, but at this point it’s opting to take some risk off at least temporarily. Positioning is now essentially flat.

Subscribe now

Please see the Performance page for more detailed performance numbers, how they’re calculated, and a chart.

For the fine print (a.k.a. the lawyer-approved stuff), don’t miss the Disclaimers section—it’s where all the “officially important” bits live!

GDR Model Outlook

Overall Outlook (as of 21 Apr 2026): MOSTLY BULLISH. Market conditions have improved markedly and have been on a constant upward path. It’s interesting that the long-term component is lagging by so much…

Fundamentals Outlook (as of 15 Apr 2026): Fair Value/Rich. The recent run-up in price has made fundamental valuations less attractive so the model is like to be more conservative on the long side going forward.

Long-Term Outlook (as of 17 Apr 2026): Bearish. The market remains bearish on the long-term timeframe, but this week closed out with strength…

Short-Term Outlook (as of 21 Apr 2026): Bullish. The market was strong throughout the day though there was notable selling throughout the day.

Breadth Outlook (as of 21 Apr 2026): Bullish. Breadth is back up to bullish and confirming the short-term strength.

Volatility Outlook (as of 21 Apr 2026): Calm. Volatility remains calm. If sustained, the expectation should start to shift to tighter ranges and a general upward drift.

GDR Model Position

The GDR Model’s read of the current market is mostly bullish, but at this point it’s opting to take some risk off at least temporarily. Positioning is now essentially flat.

Subscribe now

Please see the Performance page for more detailed performance numbers, how they’re calculated, and a chart.

For the fine print (a.k.a. the lawyer-approved stuff), don’t miss the Disclaimers section—it’s where all the “officially important” bits live!

GDR Model Outlook

Overall Outlook (as of 20 Apr 2026): MOSTLY BULLISH. Market conditions have improved markedly and have been on a constant upward path. It’s interesting that the long-term component is lagging by so much…

Fundamentals Outlook (as of 15 Apr 2026): Fair Value/Rich. The recent run-up in price has made fundamental valuations less attractive so the model is like to be more conservative on the long side going forward.

Long-Term Outlook (as of 17 Apr 2026): Bearish. The market remains bearish on the long-term timeframe, but this week closed out with strength…

Short-Term Outlook (as of 20 Apr 2026): Bullish. The market was strong throughout the day.

Breadth Outlook (as of 20 Apr 2026): Bullish. Breadth is back up to bullish and confirming the short-term strength.

Volatility Outlook (as of 20 Apr 2026): Calm. Volatility remains calm. If sustained, the expectation should start to shift to tighter ranges and a general upward drift.

GDR Model Position

The GDR Model’s read of the current market is mostly bullish, but at this point it’s opting to take some risk off at least temporarily. Positioning is now essentially flat.

Subscribe now

Please see the Performance page for more detailed performance numbers, how they’re calculated, and a chart.

For the fine print (a.k.a. the lawyer-approved stuff), don’t miss the Disclaimers section—it’s where all the “officially important” bits live!

GDR Model Outlook

Overall Outlook (as of 17 Apr 2026): MOSTLY BULLISH. Market conditions have improved markedly and have been on a constant upward path. It’s interesting that the long-term component is lagging by so much…

Fundamentals Outlook (as of 15 Apr 2026): Fair Value/Rich. The recent run-up in price has made fundamental valuations less attractive so the model is like to be more conservative on the long side going forward.

Long-Term Outlook (as of 17 Apr 2026): Bearish. The market remains bearish on the long-term timeframe, but this week closed out with strength…

Short-Term Outlook (as of 17 Apr 2026): Bullish. The market was strong throughout the day.

Breadth Outlook (as of 17 Apr 2026): Bullish. Breadth is back up to bullish and confirming the short-term strength.

Volatility Outlook (as of 17 Apr 2026): Calm. Volatility remains calm. If sustained, the expectation should start to shift to tighter ranges and a general upward drift.

GDR Model Position

The GDR Model’s read of the current market is mostly bullish, but at this point it’s opting to take some risk off at least temporarily. Positioning is now essentially flat.

Subscribe now

Please see the Performance page for more detailed performance numbers, how they’re calculated, and a chart.

For the fine print (a.k.a. the lawyer-approved stuff), don’t miss the Disclaimers section—it’s where all the “officially important” bits live!

GDR Model Outlook

Overall Outlook (as of 16 Apr 2026): MOSTLY BULLISH. Market conditions have improved markedly and we may have just seen the opening salvo of a fresh leg higher in the market. If that’s the case, the long-term outlook should catch up in relative short order.

Fundamentals Outlook (as of 15 Apr 2026): Fair Value/Rich. The recent run-up in price has made fundamental valuations less attractive so the model is like to be more conservative on the long side going forward.

Long-Term Outlook (as of 10 Apr 2026): Bearish. The market continues to show weakness on the long-term timeframe. The long-term outlook remains bearish.

Short-Term Outlook (as of 16 Apr 2026): Bullish. The market was strong throughout the day.

Breadth Outlook (as of 16 Apr 2026): Bullish. Breadth is back up to bullish and confirming the short-term strength.

Volatility Outlook (as of 16 Apr 2026): Calm. Volatility remains calm. If sustained, the expectation should start to shift to tighter ranges and a general upward drift.

GDR Model Position

The GDR Model’s read of the current market is mostly bullish. The model is still keeping its starter long position but if the current strength is sustained, the model is likely to add to it substantially.

Subscribe now

Please see the Performance page for more detailed performance numbers, how they’re calculated, and a chart.

For the fine print (a.k.a. the lawyer-approved stuff), don’t miss the Disclaimers section—it’s where all the “officially important” bits live!

GDR Model Outlook

Overall Outlook (as of 15 Apr 2026): MOSTLY BULLISH. Market conditions have improved markedly and we may have just seen the opening salvo of a fresh leg higher in the market. If that’s the case, the long-term outlook should catch up in relative short order.

Fundamentals Outlook (as of 15 Apr 2026): Fair Value/Rich. The recent run-up in price has made fundamental valuations less attractive so the model is like to be more conservative on the long side going forward.

Long-Term Outlook (as of 10 Apr 2026): Bearish. The market continues to show weakness on the long-term timeframe. The long-term outlook remains bearish.

Short-Term Outlook (as of 15 Apr 2026): Bullish. The market was strong throughout the day.

Breadth Outlook (as of 15 Apr 2026): Bullish. Breadth is back up to bullish and confirming the short-term strength.

Volatility Outlook (as of 15 Apr 2026): Calm. Volatility remains calm. If sustained, the expectation should start to shift to tighter ranges and a general upward drift.

GDR Model Position

The GDR Model’s read of the current market is mostly bullish. The model is still keeping its starter long position but if the current strength is sustained, the model is likely to add to it substantially.

Subscribe now

Please see the Performance page for more detailed performance numbers, how they’re calculated, and a chart.

For the fine print (a.k.a. the lawyer-approved stuff), don’t miss the Disclaimers section—it’s where all the “officially important” bits live!

GDR Model Outlook

Overall Outlook (as of 14 Apr 2026): MOSTLY BULLISH. Market conditions have improved markedly and we may have just seen the opening salvo of a fresh leg higher in the market. If that’s the case, the long-term outlook should catch up in relative short order.

Fundamentals Outlook (as of 9 Apr 2026): Fair Value. The Fundamentals portion of the model was updated with fresh data today. Estimated fair value is higher than before so the model will tilt more bullish than before.

Long-Term Outlook (as of 10 Apr 2026): Bearish. The market continues to show weakness on the long-term timeframe. The long-term outlook remains bearish.

Short-Term Outlook (as of 14 Apr 2026): Bullish. The market was strong throughout the day.

Breadth Outlook (as of 14 Apr 2026): Bullish. Breadth is back up to bullish and confirming the short-term strength.

Volatility Outlook (as of 14 Apr 2026): Calm. Volatility remains calm. If sustained, the expectation should start to shift to tighter ranges and a general upward drift.

GDR Model Position

The GDR Model’s read of the current market is mostly bullish. The model is still keeping its starter long position but if the current strength is sustained, the model is likely to add to it substantially.

Subscribe now

Please see the Performance page for more detailed performance numbers, how they’re calculated, and a chart.

For the fine print (a.k.a. the lawyer-approved stuff), don’t miss the Disclaimers section—it’s where all the “officially important” bits live!

GDR Model Outlook

Overall Outlook (as of 13 Apr 2026): MOSTLY BULLISH. Market conditions have improved markedly and we may have just seen the opening salvo of a fresh leg higher in the market. If that’s the case, the long-term outlook should catch up in relative short order.

Fundamentals Outlook (as of 9 Apr 2026): Fair Value. The Fundamentals portion of the model was updated with fresh data today. Estimated fair value is higher than before so the model will tilt more bullish than before.

Long-Term Outlook (as of 10 Apr 2026): Bearish. The market continues to show weakness on the long-term timeframe. The long-term outlook remains bearish.

Short-Term Outlook (as of 13 Apr 2026): Bullish. The market was strong throughout the day.

Breadth Outlook (as of 13 Apr 2026): Neutral. Breadth remains neutral. It’s interesting that this component has been so unstable over the last few days given the strength in the market.

Volatility Outlook (as of 13 Apr 2026): Calm. Volatility remains calm. If sustained, the expectation should start to shift to tighter ranges and a general upward drift.

GDR Model Position

The GDR Model’s read of the current market is mostly bullish. The model is still keeping its starter long position but if the current strength is sustained, the model is likely to add to it substantially.

Subscribe now

Please see the Performance page for more detailed performance numbers, how they’re calculated, and a chart.

For the fine print (a.k.a. the lawyer-approved stuff), don’t miss the Disclaimers section—it’s where all the “officially important” bits live!

GDR Model Outlook

Overall Outlook (as of 10 Apr 2026): MOSTLY BULLISH. Market conditions have improved markedly and we may have just seen the opening salvo of a fresh leg higher in the market. If that’s the case, the long-term outlook should catch up in relative short order.

Fundamentals Outlook (as of 9 Apr 2026): Fair Value. The Fundamentals portion of the model was updated with fresh data today. Estimated fair value is higher than before so the model will tilt more bullish than before.

Long-Term Outlook (as of 10 Apr 2026): Bearish. The market continues to show weakness on the long-term timeframe. The long-term outlook remains bearish.

Short-Term Outlook (as of 10 Apr 2026): Bullish. The market was strong throughout the day.

Breadth Outlook (as of 10 Apr 2026): Neutral. Breadth is back down to neutral. It’s interesting that this component has been so unstable over the last few days given the strength in the market.

Volatility Outlook (as of 10 Apr 2026): Calm. Volatility remains calm. If sustained, the expectation should start to shift to tighter ranges and a general upward drift.

GDR Model Position

The GDR Model’s read of the current market is mostly bullish. The model is still keeping its starter long position but if the current strength is sustained, the model is likely to add to it substantially.

Subscribe now

Please see the Performance page for more detailed performance numbers, how they’re calculated, and a chart.

For the fine print (a.k.a. the lawyer-approved stuff), don’t miss the Disclaimers section—it’s where all the “officially important” bits live!

GDR Model Outlook

Overall Outlook (as of 9 Apr 2026): MOSTLY BULLISH. Market conditions have improved markedly and we may have just seen the opening salvo of a fresh leg higher in the market. If that’s the case, the long-term outlook should catch up in relative short order.

Fundamentals Outlook (as of 9 Apr 2026): Fair Value. The Fundamentals portion of the model was updated with fresh data today. Estimated fair value is higher than before so the model will tilt more bullish than before.

Long-Term Outlook (as of 2 Apr 2026): Bearish. The market showed weakness at the end of the week again. The long-term outlook remains bearish.

Short-Term Outlook (as of 9 Apr 2026): Bullish. The market was strong throughout the day.

Breadth Outlook (as of 9 Apr 2026): Neutral. Breadth is back down to neutral. It’s interesting that this component has been so unstable over the last few days given the strength in the market.

Volatility Outlook (as of 9 Apr 2026): Calm. Volatility improved further to calm. If sustained the expectation should start to shift to tighter ranges and a general upward drift.

GDR Model Position

The GDR Model’s read of the current market is mostly bullish. The model is still keeping its starter long position but if the current strength is sustained, the model is likely to add to it substantially.

Subscribe now

Please see the Performance page for more detailed performance numbers, how they’re calculated, and a chart.

For the fine print (a.k.a. the lawyer-approved stuff), don’t miss the Disclaimers section—it’s where all the “officially important” bits live!

GDR Model Outlook

Overall Outlook (as of 8 Apr 2026): MOSTLY BULLISH. Market conditions have improved markedly and we may have just seen the opening salvo of a fresh leg higher in the market. If that’s the case, the long-term outlook should catch up in relative short order.

Fundamentals Outlook (as of 1 Apr 2026): Fair Value/Rich. The market has rallied enough to make fundamentals slightly less favorable so the model will tilt slightly less long at certain points.

Long-Term Outlook (as of 2 Apr 2026): Bearish. The market showed weakness at the end of the week again. The long-term outlook remains bearish.

Short-Term Outlook (as of 8 Apr 2026): Bullish. The market was strong throughout the day.

Breadth Outlook (as of 8 Apr 2026): Neutral. Breadth is bullish and confirming the strength in the market right now.

Volatility Outlook (as of 8 Apr 2026): Calm. Volatility improved further to calm. If sustained the expectation should start to shift to tighter ranges and a general upward drift.

GDR Model Position

The GDR Model’s read of the current market is mostly bullish. The model is still keeping its starter long position but if the current strength is sustained, the model is likely to add to it substantially.

Subscribe now

Please see the Performance page for more detailed performance numbers, how they’re calculated, and a chart.

For the fine print (a.k.a. the lawyer-approved stuff), don’t miss the Disclaimers section—it’s where all the “officially important” bits live!

GDR Model Outlook

Overall Outlook (as of 7 Apr 2026): NEUTRAL TO BULLISH. Market conditions have improved enough that the model’s overall stance has recently improved to neutral or better.

Fundamentals Outlook (as of 1 Apr 2026): Fair Value/Rich. The market has rallied enough to make fundamentals slightly less favorable so the model will tilt slightly less long at certain points.

Long-Term Outlook (as of 2 Apr 2026): Bearish. The market showed weakness at the end of the week again. The long-term outlook remains bearish.

Short-Term Outlook (as of 7 Apr 2026): Bullish. The market closed on strength, but there was a lot of back and forth throughout the day, likely in anticipation of imminent geopolitical announcements.

Breadth Outlook (as of 7 Apr 2026): Neutral. Breadth has dropped back to neutral. For now, this doesn’t carry much information, but worth keeping an eye on.

Volatility Outlook (as of 7 Apr 2026): Stable. Volatility remains at stable. If sustained the expectation should start to shift to tighter ranges and a general upward drift.

GDR Model Position

The GDR Model’s read of the current market is neutral to bullish, so the model has put on a starter long position.

Subscribe now

Please see the Performance page for more detailed performance numbers, how they’re calculated, and a chart.

For the fine print (a.k.a. the lawyer-approved stuff), don’t miss the Disclaimers section—it’s where all the “officially important” bits live!

GDR Model Outlook

Overall Outlook (as of 6 Apr 2026): NEUTRAL TO BULLISH. Market conditions have improved enough that the model’s overall stance has recently improved to neutral or better.

Fundamentals Outlook (as of 1 Apr 2026): Fair Value/Rich. The market has rallied enough to make fundamentals slightly less favorable so the model will tilt slightly less long at certain points.

Long-Term Outlook (as of 2 Apr 2026): Bearish. The market showed weakness at the end of the week again. The long-term outlook remains bearish.

Short-Term Outlook (as of 6 Apr 2026): Bullish. The market showed decent strength throughout the day.

Breadth Outlook (as of 6 Apr 2026): Bullish. Breadth has improved to bullish, further confirming the improvement in the short-term outlook.

Volatility Outlook (as of 6 Apr 2026): Stable. Volatility improve stable. If sustained the expectation should start to shift to tighter ranges and a general upward drift.

GDR Model Position

The GDR model’s read of the current market remains bearish, but has improved. The model is now slightly long.

Subscribe now

Please see the Performance page for more detailed performance numbers, how they’re calculated, and a chart.

For the fine print (a.k.a. the lawyer-approved stuff), don’t miss the Disclaimers section—it’s where all the “officially important” bits live!

GDR Model Outlook

Overall Outlook (as of 2 Apr 2026): NEUTRAL. Market conditions have improved enough that the model’s overall stance is neutral.

Fundamentals Outlook (as of 1 Apr 2026): Fair Value/Rich. The market has rallied enough to make fundamentals slightly less favorable so the model will tilt slightly less long at certain points.

Long-Term Outlook (as of 27 Mar 2026): Bearish. The market showed weakness at the end of the week again. The long-term outlook remains bearish.

Short-Term Outlook (as of 2 Apr 2026): Bullish. The short-term outlook has improved further to bullish. The market started the day weak, but that quickly gave way to strength.

Breadth Outlook (as of 2 Apr 2026): Neutral. Breadth remains neutral, seemingly in lockstep with the short-term strength observed over the last three days.

Volatility Outlook (as of 2 Apr 2026): Shaky. Volatility remains shaky. Since this is still a negative reading continue expecting wide ranges. This could come in the form of bigger sell-offs or nasty short-covering rallies (like today’s).

GDR Model Position

The GDR model’s read of the current market remains bearish, but has improved. The model is now slightly long.

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